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“You can go back to your homes…” This brief statement from Hezbollah’s Secretary General, following his organization’s “response” to the assassination of Fouad Shokr, raises questions. How could he say such words? On Monday, Israeli bombings claimed nearly 558 lives—a horrifying toll, almost half of the total number of casualties from the entire 2006 war, all in a single day. So, there are two possibilities: either Nasrallah is completely disconnected from the reality on the ground, or he has a poor understanding of the events and Israeli intentions. In either case, it’s serious, and the Lebanese people are the victims of this madness. Moreover, on the Israeli side, officials assert that Monday was just a preview of what Israel has in store. It may be psychological warfare, but it’s certainly not reassuring.
In his interview with Marcel Ghanem on MTV on Monday night, Walid Joumblatt made three valid points:
First, it is entirely possible that Lebanon will be turned into another Gaza. Because who could stop Benjamin Netanyahu? No one. The “Arab brothers” are happy with their statements of support. Some might send a few medical supplies, and that’s where it will end. The Europeans have no influence over either side. The Americans are in the middle of a presidential campaign. Trump and Harris have other things to think about. President Biden is semi-retired, and no one wants to grant him the merit of a ceasefire.
Second, as Joumblatt highlighted, Lebanon urgently needs a president. Because, right now, official Lebanon no longer exists. It is merely the fearful accessory of the Shiite militia. If a president is elected—General Joseph Aoun, in our opinion, would be the right man for the job—we could envision the coordinated and conciliatory application of Resolution 1701, which would allow Hezbollah, even in its weakened state, to save face while deploying the army, even if under-equipped, along the border. Otherwise, what could prevent the Israelis from invading Lebanon up to the Orontes River if they wanted to? Nothing, and no one. Who would force them to withdraw afterward? Still no one. Because the joke of the “balance of terror” has been exposed. On Monday, hundreds of fighter jets attacked more than 1,100 “targets,” without a single missile fired in retaliation. Do these missiles even exist? We can now doubt it. Unless the order not to use them came from Iran.
Third, Joumblatt brought up another important point, which isn’t new: implement the terms of the armistice agreement of March 23, 1949. It includes everything—the border demarcation, cessation of hostilities, etc. This agreement has the advantage of drawing easier international support compared to Resolution 1701.
Meanwhile, a return to the Stone Age awaits the Lebanese. Without water or electricity, with crumbling infrastructure, a five-year crisis, and the most expensive and least efficient internet service in the world—the Stone Age is within reach. But beware of the Lebanese and their will to survive. Even in prehistoric times, the mammoths that terrorized the caves eventually disappeared.
