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From now until the US elections on November 5, all eyes will be on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may decide to expand military operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, coinciding with the first anniversary of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack on October 7.
Information from the US capital indicates that the Israeli army has completed preparations and acquired weapons and ammunition for further escalation in southern Lebanon. It is considering two options: either significantly escalating airstrikes and expanding their scope, in parallel with commando operations in certain areas, or launching a ground operation in which Israeli forces would attempt to penetrate a certain distance south of the Litani River.
American sources clarify that no political decision has been made at the Israeli level to start developing military operations, particularly since US military officials agree with their Israeli counterparts that the current attacks against Hezbollah are achieving the desired military objective of damaging the party’s military infrastructure.
On the other hand, according to several overlapping reports, Hezbollah seems to be seeking ways to avoid prolonging the war in the south, given the absence of a foreseeable end to the war in Gaza. Hezbollah is aware that a prolonged conflict in the south would have severe repercussions on the party itself, southern residents, and the Lebanese in general, especially if the situation escalates further, leading to more displacement and destruction.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib have recently received direct and indirect messages urging them to once again attempt to separate the situation in southern Lebanon from that in Gaza. Both Lebanese officials have expressed their willingness to relay the messages, once again, to Hezbollah, even though they are aware that a positive response is unlikely without clarifying what Hezbollah would receive in return for such a step and what price it would pay.
