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It is a surprise to none that nothing in Lebanon is done within the deadlines stipulated by the Constitution, mainly due to the biggest problem that the Lebanese regime faces: unilateral decisions and hegemony over the State.
In 2022, the main slogan of the elections was that the new Parliament will honor its most important commitment, electing a new President.
In reality, the 2022 Parliament was supposed to accomplish its mission in the first 6 months of its mandate, some of its most serious objectives being to elect a Parliament speaker and parliamentary committees, approving the first budget, and organizing parliamentary consultations to form a government after electing a President. But the Parliament was incapacitated because of the constant obstructing of its activities.
And since electing a President is the result of internal and external agreements, it has become clear that the general situation will not allow for such an election, at least in 2024, the whole issue being postponed indefinitely. In fact, it has also become clear that the political events in the region are increasing in complexity, which is liable to freeze all major decisions to be taken in Lebanon.
For that reason, many are stressing the importance of organizing early parliamentary elections, in order to remove the political deadlock. But the people calling for this are not doing so because one of the two main blocks will be able to secure two thirds of the seats. They are asking for early elections to remodel the Parliament by “getting rid” of the Change MPs, reducing the number of blocs to two. Elias Bou Saab, who isn’t aligned with Gebran Bassil, and Wiam Wahab, the unofficial spokesperson of the obstructionist axis (al-Moumanaa) – although a realpolitik advocate – are among the proponents of the early elections in question. That being said, such an initiative would not change the course of the presidential election: even if one of the two blocs manages to secure two thirds of the votes, a major component would be missing, the issue of internal dissent will arise, and the new President will have to start off on the wrong foot.
Therefore, according to most estimates, this Parliament will fail to elect a President, and the matter will have to be postponed until after the 2026 election, if no major change shifts the balance of power in one direction or the other, that is. All will be put on hold, and Lebanon will be left with no other option but to await drastic change. In any case, the parliamentary elections won’t alter much, as we know full well that, in the case of Lebanon, they breed yet more problems instead of solving them. Has this not been the case since the country’s independence? Has it not been proved that democracy in Lebanon is a democracy in name only, and that it is rather an act to make everyone believe that institutions are being protected and the constitution safeguarded?
