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Despite the failure of American, French and Arab attempts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza before the beginning of Ramadan, efforts are still underway for a truce, this time through a new US proposal that is awaiting Hamas’s response. US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf stated in this regard, “We are seeking a six-week ceasefire in Gaza to release detainees and deliver aid. It is unacceptable to carry out a military operation in Rafah before civilians are relocated to safe locations.”
In Lebanon, where violence has been raging between Israel and Hezbollah since October 8, Qatar has embarked on a new settlement strategy. The Qatari initiative adheres to the criteria set by the five-nation group (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, France, the US and Qatar), or Quintet, for a presidential candidate, while urging political forces to shoulder their responsibilities. Informed sources emphasize that in addition to being non-affiliated to any specific faction or political party, the presidential candidate should not undermine the interests of the Shiite duo (Amal/Hezbollah) and should be on good terms with the Prime Minister.
In fact, there is an emphasis on the solid bonds that should exist between the president and the PM, as they could facilitate the formation of a technocratic government free from partisan interests and capable of implementing the needed reforms. Insider sources have revealed the existence of a structured roadmap to be presented to political parties that includes the following points: electing a president, appointing a prime minister, swiftly forming a government, reaching an agreement on issues related to southern Lebanon, implementing International Monetary Fund reforms and leveraging the support of donor countries to help Lebanon.
Western diplomatic circles believe that a ceasefire in Gaza would have positive repercussions in South Lebanon and could potentially pave the way for Qatar to reactivate its US-backed initiative that will oversee Lebanon’s post-presidential economic recovery. Ahead of the anticipated ceasefire announcement, ambassadors from the Quintet countries are actively engaging with key stakeholders and political forces. Some are conducting one-on-one meetings with influential figures to lay the groundwork for the post-ceasefire phase.
Meanwhile, the National Moderation Bloc is pressing on with its initiative to schedule a consultative meeting ahead of the election session. In parallel, senior White House advisor Amos Hochstein would visit Lebanon with the mission of stabilizing the southern region and implementing Resolution 1701. He would also ensure the demarcation of the land border and the settlement of the 13 disputed points, including B1 in Naqoura. The future of Shebaa, Kfarchouba and Ghajar will not be addressed, as they do not fall under Hochstein’s mission which also encompasses addressing the presidential dossier and pushing for a solution.
In light of these developments, a meeting is reportedly being planned to bring together Christian parties in Bkerke, including the Lebanese Forces (LF), the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the Kataeb, the Marada Movement and the president of the Independence Movement, Michel Moawad.
In a move that precedes the potential meeting in Bkerke, the LF handed Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai an eight-page roadmap that includes an assessment of the present situation as well as Christian and national political principles and objectives. LF sources say the document presented to the Patriarch includes questions that need swift answers and commitments by the Shiite duo to refrain from impeding future presidential elections and government formations, a scenario that never happened before the 1989 Taif Agreement.
Sources close to the LF believe that the events unfolding in Lebanon are extremely dangerous, as they undermine partnership and political balance amidst significant emigration, particularly among Christians who bear the brunt of countering externally-driven agendas. Giving priority to foreign interests over Lebanon’s strikes at the core of the country’s coexistence, leaving decision-making and authority under the hegemony of weapons bearers that operate according to an Iranian agenda.
The sources underlined the imperative need to restructure what is known as the coexistence formula to safeguard Lebanon’s unique characteristics. “While we are advocating for a unified state and institutions, Hezbollah insists on having a candidate from their pro-Iranian ‘Moumanaa axis’ as part of a settlement deal for implementing Resolution 1701.”
