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Amid an atmosphere charged with anticipation, the Lebanese are holding their breath as Hassan Nasrallah, the emblematic figure of Hezbollah, prepares to deliver a speech on November 3, marking his first address since the escalation of tensions between Israel and Hamas on October 7. His speech, scheduled during a commemoration for “martyrs,” comes in a context of oppressive silence, which has fueled numerous conjectures about Hezbollah’s future strategies against Israel.
Nasrallah’s brief appearance, captured in a ten-second clip where he is seen walking decisively in front of the recognizable emblem of the movement, was enough to invigorate his supporters and terrify his opponents. Released on October 29, this video set social media ablaze, exacerbating tensions and expectations in Lebanon. Since then, a series of messages with subliminal content followed, thickening the mystery and reviving anxieties, reminiscent of a “Trailer” for a suspenseful movie.
The lack of previous statements from Nasrallah opens the door to a myriad of interpretations about the possibility of a new front of combat opening against the Jewish state. While his words are eagerly awaited — balancing on the fever of hope and the vertigo of doubt — it is undeniable that his address could either consolidate the front of resistance or, according to observers, risk the stability of an already deeply troubled country.
The movement’s most uncompromising adherents, staunch defenders of the Palestinian cause and animated by hostility towards Israel, express their bafflement at Hezbollah’s perceived reluctance to engage in combat against what they call “the Zionist enemy,” especially since the ground offensive in Gazan territory. They brandish the slogan “Oh Nasrallah, strike Tel Aviv” during public gatherings, funerals, and the cry of war spreads even through melodies shared on social media to their followers.
According to Nancy Ezzeddine, an analyst of the Dutch think tank Clingendael, an escalation of the conflict could plunge Lebanon into a devastating war, but a measured response could weaken Hezbollah’s moral authority, legitimacy and mobilizing strength. Thus, the Hezbollah leader’s speech holds immense significance, standing at the crossroads between the solidarity of his base and strategic imperatives in a region rocked by instability.
The Ingredients of Psychological Warfare…
Psychological warfare is an aspect of war aimed at influencing the psychology of the adversary or the general public. It can involve the spreading of propaganda, intimidation and deterrence. In Nasrallah’s case, his speeches are often dissected for their content in terms of threat, persuasion and signals sent both to his supporters and enemies. Additionally, the anticipation of a speech generates uncertainty and anxiety among Hezbollah’s opponents. Speculation about the content occupies the media and analysts, creating a psychologically tense atmosphere. By analyzing Nasrallah’s previous speeches and statements, one can infer recurring themes that might indicate his strategies of warfare, whether psychological or actual. By addressing the civilian population, Nasrallah seeks to galvanize the support of his followers and impose on his detractors the prospect of potential war.
This much-anticipated speech may also be intended to shape international perceptions and to test the reactions of foreign governments, which might adjust their policies or rhetoric accordingly. Also, the timing and channel for a speech, as well as the manner of its dissemination, are part of the staging. Finally, the rhetoric used, symbols and historical or religious references also play a significant role in psychological warfare, by strengthening group identity and thus legitimizing the actions and objectives of Hezbollah.
Waiting for Godot…
While waiting for the sky to fall (or not), southern Lebanon remains the setting for daily confrontations involving Hezbollah and Palestinian groups on one side, and the Israeli army on the other. So far, a semblance of stability is maintained, with both sides carefully observing established rules of engagement. However, this fragile tranquility could pivot, leading up to or in the wake of Nasrallah’s highly anticipated address, set for tomorrow, Friday.
In this climate of vigilance, where each party measures its actions, the precarious status quo could be tested. The forthcoming statements from Nasrallah could redefine the parameters of the ongoing confrontation or even chart new courses. The entire region is holding its breath, awaiting the words that could either soothe or exacerbate the palpable tensions along this historically volatile demarcation line.
