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Hamas attack
The region has been thrown into turmoil, which has fundamentally altered the political situation and stalled the Israeli-Saudi normalization effort.
This shift has prompted various players to attempt to harness the new dynamics in order to advance their regional agendas.
The “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation has repositioned the issues at hand, with the two-state solution to the Palestinian problem taking precedence. Israel, especially under the right-wing leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu, has been forced to accept this new reality reluctantly.
In response, Netanyahu has pursued a strategy of involving the opposition in an attempt to establish a national unity government, which has the potential to serve as a government during times of war. He aims to safeguard his political standing in light of international criticism that held his government accountable for the extremism of right-wing ministers who “intended to undermine the Palestinian identity and rejected the two-state solution.” Notably, Benny Gantz joined the government, while Yair Lapid declined to partner with Netanyahu in a unified government.
According to a military expert, “the war cannot be prolonged due to the fear of escalation into new fronts.”
Washington’s denial of any involvement by Iran or Hezbollah in the operation, as stated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, “We have no confirmation of Iran and Hezbollah’s involvement,” and Iran’s refutation of any involvement in the operation, despite Hamas taking responsibility for it, demonstrate a lack of enthusiasm for an expanded conflict.
Consequently, diplomatic circles emphasize that “it is highly unlikely that Washington will authorize Netanyahu’s new occupation of Gaza,” as it could potentially ignite a regional war and open up new Moumanaa (Iranian-backed) fronts.
Washington has warned the Moumanaa forces against any further escalation in confrontations. Ambassador Dorothy Shea delivered a clear and concise message to Hezbollah, which she conveyed to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The message stated that if any rocket or attack were to emanate from the southern region targeting Israel, both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah would be held accountable, and the response would be very harsh. On the contrary, Berri pressed his diplomatic visitors to exert pressure on Israel, urging a cessation of military operations, advocating for the acceptance of a two-state solution, and resuming negotiations.
Consequently, the positions articulated by Hezbollah officials and their readiness to address potential developments, coupled with their steadfastness to confine their response to the South, strongly suggest that the party has no intention of escalation and Israel lacks the “capability” to open up the front with Lebanon.
However, this scenario has the potential to quickly change if Israel chooses to enter Gaza, especially considering the involvement of US military personnel in the operations, confirms a Hezbollah official, as reported by a pro-March 8 politician.
Considering the recent visit of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, to the region, it is clear that there is little appetite for further escalation of the war. Rather, the focus is on calling for a cessation of military operations to prevent additional victims.
The Israeli strikes on Damascus and Aleppo airports in Syria, rendering them non-operational, served as a warning to the Moumanaa Axis that a robust response awaits those who engage in the battles. Netanyahu stated that the primary objective of the Gaza bombing was the eradication of the Hamas movement.
Post-operation… What does the future hold?
The nature of the upcoming phase remains unpredictable as long as military operations persist.
Nonetheless, certain groups associated with Hamas anticipated the potential of the latter to compel Israel into embracing the two-state solution and to engage in negotiations on behalf of Palestine and Iran, to include Tehran in the decision-making process. Meanwhile, Israel is focusing its efforts on eradicating Hamas to prevent it from participating in negotiations on behalf of Iran.
Following the consolidation of Palestinian reconciliation efforts led by Egypt and Turkey and the establishment of a new Palestinian governing authority, Western sources assert that negotiations will be held with the Palestinian Authority, which is recognized as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
According to knowledgeable sources, discussions on normalization will not take place after the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation unless Israel publicly acknowledges the two-state solution. This would be backed by stances from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar to pursue a comprehensive settlement while halting military operations.
What type of settlement is the international community seeking? A Western diplomat explains that this settlement is dependent on the emergence of a new Middle East, new alliances, and the achievement of the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab countries. These agreements mark the commencement of initiatives aimed at advancing toward the two-state solution and delineating their boundaries.
This will coincide with the demarcation of Lebanon’s southern land borders and the delineation of its maritime and terrestrial boundaries with Syria, with the aim of forming a new, demilitarized Middle East. The objective is to ensure the security of the oil-rich region from Egypt to Greece.
A diplomat from Europe acknowledges the extensive and challenging path towards a comprehensive settlement. President Joe Biden aims to resolve the issue and incorporate it into his presidential campaign.
