Listen to the article
What was discussed during the 20-minute private meeting in Ain El-Tineh, the residence of Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, between the latter and US President Joe Biden’s advisor on energy affairs, Amos Hochstein, in the presence of the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea?
Some sources reported that Washington urged Berri to call for consecutive sessions to elect a president in order to put Lebanon on the path to recovery, coinciding with the kickoff of gas exploration. Attention was subsequently expected to shift toward resolving the issue of the southern border demarcation and the disputed points.
As the American message was unequivocal — despite words of the contrary — regarding its discontent with Berri’s alignment with Hezbollah in hindering the presidential election and the US decision to impose sanctions on him, Berri promptly chastised “The Snitch Squad” by saying, “You do not seem to know Nabih Berri well enough. You’d better find other issues to deal with.”
The American message came in conjunction with encouraging indications that suggest progress toward a resolution. A key development in this regard was Berri’s proposal to convene an open session and consecutive rounds for the presidential election, preceded by a week-long dialogue. This strategic move aims at pleasing both the obstructionist axis and members of the opposition. As such, Berri asserts that the presidential election should not be carried out by imposing a candidate or putting a veto against a specific candidate, but instead advocate for a unifying consensus president.
In alignment with Berri’s position, French President Emmanuel Macron made a striking statement in which he held Iran responsible for destabilizing the region. “One of the major aspects of the political solution will certainly involve clarifying the issue of Iran’s interference in Lebanon,” he stated.
During his visit to Lebanon, Iran’s Minister of foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, seized the opportunity to respond to Macron by saying, “I advise Mr. Macron to focus on France’s situation instead of interfering in other countries’ affairs.” He stressed that “Saudi Arabia and Iran do not meddle in Lebanon’s affairs, and restoring relations is a positive indicator which helps resolve the crisis.” Abdollahian’s visit took on a conciliatory tone and conveyed messages to various stakeholders. To Saudi Arabia, it emphasized the need to normalize relations; to China, it reiterated its commitment to the Beijing agreement. Finally, to the five countries that participated in the Paris meeting including the US, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar, it underlined that Iran is not the destabilizing force hindering Lebanon’s presidential elections. Abdollahian also conveyed a message to Lebanon, expressing Iran’s readiness to help in the energy sector and calling upon political forces to elect a president away from any foreign interference.
Away from the media spotlight, Abdollahian relayed a message to Hezbollah whereby Iran is seeking to adopt a zero-problem policy with Saudi Arabia and wishes for a resolution to the Yemeni crisis. He urged the Shiite party to relinquish this issue and initiate negotiations with Saudi Arabia to reach an agreement. Furthermore, the meetings held with Palestinian leaders and Lebanese political forces reflected the conciliatory nature of the visit. However, Abdollahian stressed that Lebanon remains within the obstructionist axis, as he reiterated Iran’s support for the Lebanese formula “nation, army and resistance.”
This position follows Abdollahian’s visit to Syria, where he detected an American attempt to disengage Syria from Iran’s sphere of influence. It marks a shift from minority alliances to majority alliances in the region as exemplified by the Arab Sunni-Israeli normalization through the Abraham Accords.
In light of these circumstances, Iran continues to hold steadfast to its commitment to Lebanon, as it represents an essential card in its axis and provides Iran with a presence on the Mediterranean, according to informed sources. Therefore, Abdollahian focused his positions on “supporting the ‘resistance’ and the Lebanese people, offering assistance and urging the election of a president to implement the economic revival plan.”
While Abdollahian’s visit conveyed multiple signals to various stakeholders, the primary focus appeared to be on promoting stability and calm, especially in the context of regional dynamics. This significance is underscored by the deployment of US military forces who cut all communication and supply lines between Iran and Lebanon at the al-Tanf border crossing between Syria and Iraq. According to Arab media sources, this development has reinforced the establishment of an aerial route between Tehran and Beirut, through which Iran directly transfers the necessary equipment and weaponry needed by Hezbollah.
Berri’s reliance on negotiations between the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Hezbollah to pave the way for a positive outcome in the presidential election seems misplaced, as per sources within the March 8 (pro-Hezbollah) coalition. To date, there has been no significant progress despite the mutual desire to reach an agreement. The data presented by the FPM’s leader, Gebran Bassil, cannot be hastily decided by Hezbollah, as the Shiite party needs to engage in thorough discussions and deliberations with its allies. Differently put, there is no resolution on the horizon.
A former minister indicates that at this point, there is no precise profile of the future president, as he anticipates the emergence of a new factor that could alter the political landscape and redirect the course of the presidential election, thus involving potential candidates who might take center stage. This comes at a time when some presidential candidates are losing ground due to the persistence of some who favor a consensus president rather than a confrontational one.
As per diplomatic sources, the developments in Syria are far from mundane. As such, their implications and consequences will have significant effects on Lebanon’s local landscape, especially regarding the porous border issues and the volume of Syrian refugees in the country.
