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Do the political firestorms, roving breaches of security, escalation and the intensifying sectarian tensions not necessitate the swift resolution of the crisis and the timely election of a president? This vital issue gains even greater significance as the cherished stability, upheld by all, now wavers, posing serious security threats as well as, at the political, economic, and societal levels.
These headlines, characterizing Lebanon’s current state, are due to the regional circumstances and the intricate political landscape. What were once positive scenarios progressing under favorable conditions, have now encountered obstacles and shifted towards political confrontations, an atmosphere of escalation, tension and negative interactions.
Does the present situation require a quick resolution of the crisis and the election of a president this year? Or should the election be deferred until a regional roadmap to address the crisis is reached?
Arab political circles attribute the reshaping of the regional landscape to the lack of consensus on Iran’s role and influence in the region. It has become evident that Arab nations firmly reject any non-Arab (notably Iranian) interference within their sphere. This stance was underscored by the refusal to include Iran in the Paris Quintet (Egypt, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States) for resolving the Lebanese crisis. Arab States have chosen to take full control of their own affairs, tackle their challenges independently, and proactively assert their roles. This trend is fostering the increasing prominence of specific countries, notably Saudi Arabia, which is assuming the responsibility of a significant regional and global actor. This is illustrated by their participation in conferences, including the recent international peace summit on Ukraine, aimed at putting an end to the war with Russia.
These evolving developments have triggered a setback in nuclear negotiations, prompting a swift return of military American engagement, starting from the closure of the Syrian-Iraqi borders, cutting the Iranian communication with Lebanon via the Syrian Al-Tanf border crossing, as well as intercepting arms shipments to Lebanon. Moreover, the Fifth Fleet arrived in the region with landing crafts carrying attack helicopters. As highlighted by an observer, these actions are all aimed at synchronizing the regional tempo with the international US timetable.
The time has come for charting the political course or the political limits of the states’ influence in the region, as well as speeding up the implementation of the Abraham Accords between Arab nations and Israel. The ultimate goal is to promote stability across the “oil and gas region,” from Egypt to Greece, to guarantee the safe shipment of oil and gas to Europe, which is actively pursuing independence from Russian oil. In this context, the strategic American military presence in the Mediterranean, the Gulf and the straits is paramount to ensuring the safety of maritime navigation.
In the midst of these evolving developments and fluctuations, following the “failure of the Beijing Agreement” and the resurgence of the Abraham Accords, Lebanon has transformed into a complex arena where two distinct agendas intersect: the (Hezbollah-led) Moumanaa project on one hand, and major conflict settlement on the other hand, starting with the Palestinian issue through the two-state solution. There is an urgency surrounding Palestinian reconciliation, with negotiations scheduled to start in September in parallel with the UN General Assembly meetings, according to a reliable source. Thus, the upheaval in Ain el-Helweh refugee camp, reportedly triggered by Iran, according to opposition sources, conveys a pointed message to both regional and international parties. It highlights the importance of the Palestinian card, with Lebanon emerging as a pivotal arena in its axe. The recent visit of an Iranian official, who met with Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah, holds profound implications within this intricate landscape.
The countries participating in the Paris Quintet (Egypt, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States) seek to keep Lebanon away from the escalating tensions.  They want it to be a neutral entity, to commit to the Baabda Declaration and to a policy of disassociation. Therefore, there is currently much talk about securing the southern borders after completing the demarcation of the maritime boundaries. This initiative aims to proceed with the delineation and clarification of the eastern borders, allowing Lebanon to once again embrace its unique and well-known role as a melting pot of civilizations and faiths.
Can Lebanon successfully extricate itself from under the umbrella of the Moumanaa Axis?
The current climate of tension and intense clashes in Lebanon vividly illustrates this complex situation. The party’s response to various stances is channeled through its firm endorsement of Sleiman Frangieh for president – who will not stab the party in the back – as echoed by its leader. The party remains wary of the potential ascent of a president whose political alignment might run against its political agenda, and is also concerned about being targeted.
The forthcoming period, following the Security Council’s renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate, could host pivotal developments that might steer Lebanon toward a new trajectory. Moreover, within Western political circles, discussions revolve around the possibility of regional and international diplomatic involvement to guide Lebanon out of its crisis.
The recent series of developments, particularly those of a security nature, are set to influence the mission of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian.
Will it ease his mission or will he encounter stumbling blocks due to the intricate nature of the current phase? The decision to resolve conflicts in the region has been firmly established and is currently being put into motion. Nevertheless, the timing and deadlines remain beyond the control of any local or foreign entity.
The world is eagerly awaiting the outcome of international efforts, particularly those involving the United States and Iran, in their pursuit to secure the release of five American prisoners in return for unlocking substantial funds for Iran, despite the suspension of nuclear negotiations. Initiatives are being pursued to resurrect discussions through side meetings in Doha.
Will this contribute to the revival of nuclear negotiations and an eventual agreement that would propel the region towards lasting stability? Or will obstacles persist, causing further escalation that could possibly be manifested through limited security and military maneuvers? The region teeters on the brink of a symbolic volcano, while Lebanon precariously straddles a heated precipice, engaged in a race between diplomatic and military solutions.
