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Despite the assassination of Lebanese Forces official Elias al-Hasrouni in Ain Ebel in southern Lebanon a few days ago and the attack on residents of Kahaleh that resulted in the death of Fadi Bejjani, Hezbollah opponents refuse to be drawn into an escalation that would eventually spill onto the streets. They claim that this is precisely what Hezbollah is seeking in order to tighten the noose around its detractors, using its own devices and those of the Lebanese state that it fully controls.
Furthermore, Hezbollah opponents have emphasized that political struggle remains the most effective weapon against Hezbollah, given the significant losses the party suffers as a result. The pro-Iranian faction is therefore trying to provoke transient tensions in order to elicit reactions from its rivals, which the party would then use to overwhelm its rivals and impose its own political choices, starting with the choice of president.
Its critics highlight that Hezbollah has been experiencing constant political setbacks. For instance, it failed to secure the election of its candidate Sleiman Frangieh as president. Moreover, the French initiative it was counting on is no longer viable. Lastly, the “Quintet” (France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar) that convened in Paris and Doha rejected all of Hezbollah’s demands, even going so far as to dismiss the proposed dialogue.
It has become evident that Hezbollah is facing difficulties in imposing its political choices. However, it is not yet inclined to yield in order to pull the country out of its predicament. It seems to be leaning more towards a security, political, and sectarian escalation in an attempt to break the intensity of the political confrontation.
Furthermore, Hezbollah’s opponents caution against any uncalculated move in confronting the party. They believe that Hezbollah’s Christian political ally, namely the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), would benefit from that. Some sources have claimed that the FPM sends reassuring messages to Hezbollah daily, indicating that it would never engage in a political confrontation against Hezbollah, while apologizing for previous criticisms by dismissing them as momentary.
The FPM MPs who hastened to take a position following the events in Kahaleh and openly called out Hezbollah by name were reprimanded by the party leadership, which largely opts for vague slogans that avoid declaring any clear stance. The party called for calm and urged people to wait for the results of the investigation and to refrain from exploiting blood for political purposes.
Hezbollah’s detractors emphasize that its ally, the FPM, will be the major loser of this political confrontation. Indeed, Hezbollah has sought to gain favor with FPM MPs in the context of the presidential election knowing that this will lead to a decrease in their popularity. In truth, these MPs believe that illusory victories and positions where Hezbollah holds decision-making power will serve as compensation for the loss of what remains of their popularity.
