What the LAF Chief’s Visit to the U.S. Revealed

Lindsey Graham portrayed his meeting with Rodolphe Haykal, which collapsed within minutes, as a complete debacle. The U.S. senator asked the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) chief if Hezbollah was a terrorist organization. Haykal’s reply—“not in the Lebanese context”—prompted Graham to walk out in fury, insisting that any group responsible ...

The End of the Middle East’s Oil Bonanza

The Middle East has finally arrived at the grim reckoning long barreling toward it: a ruinous collapse of oil revenues that renders government deficits utterly unsustainable. Among the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, four are running persistent annual budget deficits that are eroding their sovereign wealth reserves and plunging ...

Lebanese Neutrality: The Strategic Interest Shared by Beirut and Jerusalem

Lebanon's neutrality in regional conflicts is the single most important strategic choice it can make today, serving its core national interests and those of Israel in equal measure. If the Lebanese understand this, their country will be well on its way not only to recovery but to an economic boom. More than a year after the November 2024 ...

Israel Won the War, So Why Is the Muslim Brotherhood Winning the Peace?

The new regional order taking shape appears to be a haunting inversion of the post-9/11 era. At the time, the U.S. smashed Sunni powers, the Taliban and Saddam Hussein, incidentally empowering Iran and its sprawling proxy network. Washington even called Shia Islamism the more “reasonable” alternative and partnered with Tehran against ...

After Khamanei: What the Fall of Iran’s Regime Would Mean for the Region

The fall of Iran's Islamist regime would mark one of the most seismic shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that brought it to power. As massive protests grip the country, sparked by economic collapse and hyperinflation, the prospect of regime change grows more tangible.  Unlike the 1979 revolution, which ushered ...

Lebanon Must Become Independent of Saudi Arabia Too

If Lebanon’s Shia are to finally divorce Iran and reclaim patriotism for their nation, other sects must also place Lebanon’s national interests above the diktats of foreign patrons. That means the Sunnis, the Christian Lebanese Forces, and Walid Jumblatt’s Druze political bloc must end their humiliating dependence on Saudi Arabia. For too ...

Peace with Israel: Lebanon's Path to Economic Revival

An unconditional peace treaty with Israel, inspired by the Abraham Accords' success, could reduce Lebanon’s security risks, unlock billions in foreign investments, revive trade, agriculture, and services, and create jobs—offering economic salvation while preserving Lebanon’s support of Palestinians.  Normalization could boost Lebanon’s ...

Why was Sharaa Invited to Washington, but not Aoun?

Until late 2024, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa was a U.S.-designated terrorist with a $10 million bounty on his head for leading the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. By contrast, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who served as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) until his election in January 2025, was widely regarded as one of ...

Lebanon Must Pick the Abraham Accords over the Muslim Brotherhood

Lebanon must pick a side in the regional map of alliances. One seeks peace, prosperity and higher standards of living for all and consists of the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Bahrain, and Morocco, enshrined by the Abraham Accords. The rival alliance—Qatar, its ATM, and Turkey, its NATO muscle, as well as Syria, Algeria, and Tunisia—dismisses ...

Barrack's Glaring Error on Syria and Lebanon

U.S. envoy Tom Barrack keeps warning that Lebanon will be “reabsorbed” into Syria unless Hezbollah is disarmed, a historically unfounded threat from someone who derides the Sykes-Picot boundaries as colonial nonsense yet treats Syria’s borders as sacrosanct. His selective anti-colonialism spares Syria, disregards Kurdish and Druze ...

Lebanon Must Answer the Pope’s Call for Peace

From the heart of Lebanon—a biblical land living under Hezbollah’s shadow—Pope Leo XIV issued a clarion call for genuine peace, not merely a ceasefire, between longstanding adversaries. Although he refrained from naming Israel directly, the implication was unmistakable: the pontiff was urging Lebanon to pursue normalization with its southern ...

The Clock Ticks on Lebanon's Empty Promises

One year on from Lebanon’s signing of the November 27, 2024 Cessation of Hostilities with Israel, Beirut’s agreement to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and disarm Hezbollah looks less like a commitment and more like theater. Lebanon has announced deadlines, staged symbolic troop deployments, and assured the world that Hezbollah’s ...

Why Normalization with Israel Will Revive Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is rapidly losing regional relevance, with Sunni rivals Qatar and Turkey encroaching on its traditional leadership roles. The Kingdom’s economy remains mired in second gear, unable to transition from oil dependency to a knowledge-based model. Riyadh’s repeated promises of financial windfalls to the U.S. now appear to be ...

The Flood that Sunk the Palestinian State

The Palestinian state is now history, owing to Hamas’s 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood attacks on Israel that dealt a fatal blow to Palestinian nationhood, a project that began in 1968 and peaked with the 1993 Oslo Accords. Hamas’s folly has prompted the UN Security Council to consider ending its longtime orthodoxy in support of a Palestinian state and ...

Aoun’s Push for Talks with Israel Must Overcome Hezbollah’s Ploys

President Joseph Aoun said Lebanon has no choice but to enter into talks with Israel to break the cycle of war, a step that media reports suggest he had agreed on with Hezbollah’s ally, Speaker Nabih Berri. Aoun’s position is commendable, but Hezbollah will use such talks as cover to rearm and prepare for another round of fighting, rather than ...

The Palestinians Must Apologize to the Lebanese

On October 26, Palestinian gunmen manning a checkpoint at Beirut’s Shatila refugee camp killed Elio Abu Hanna when he inadvertently drove into the camp. The young Lebanese man reportedly panicked at the checkpoint and did not stop his car, prompting the militiamen to open fire with dozens of rounds. The Palestinians must apologize, not only for ...

The Lebanese Demand Peace with Israel

"Break the taboos; we demand peace," declared Marcel Ghanem, host of Lebanon’s premier talk show. "Demanding peace [with Israel] is not a crime," he emphasized, challenging entrenched narratives. Marwan Hamade, a seasoned Druze lawmaker, appeared on I24 News (French service) to discuss Gaza, signaling a willingness to defy Lebanon’s surreal ...

Israel to Lebanon: Disarm Hezbollah, or Never Recover

Lebanon’s government warns that disarming Hezbollah, the pro-Iran militia that undermines its sovereignty, risks plunging the country into civil war. Yet, it simultaneously demands that the international community restrain Israel from targeting this group. This contradictory stance exacts a devastating toll: Without Hezbollah’s disarmament, ...

Two Years of Arab and Muslim Failure

Today marks the second anniversary of the horrific attacks when Hamas militants stormed out of the Gaza Strip into nearby Israeli towns. They killed, maimed and burned 1,200 civilians in a brutal door-to-door rampage, kidnapping 250. This assault demanded unequivocal condemnation from Arab and Muslim populations, yet responses ranged from ...

Game Over for Hamas

President Trump does not lend his name to a plan lightly. His 21-point program to end the Gaza War has garnered unprecedented support from Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Qatar, and Pakistan. For Hamas, the options are stark: Accept the plan or face collective ruin. But why did it take nearly two years to ...

Israel Is Not Lebanon’s Problem

Lebanon’s pursuit of its national interests is obstructed by a complex array of domestic and regional actors, with Hezbollah at the forefront, alongside some Arab capitals and the “Palestinian issue.” Lebanon must snap out of its shyness and stand up for its national interests, making it clear that it has bigger fish to fry than the ...

Disarming Hezbollah: The Easy Way vs. The Hard Way

The Lebanese government has yet to fully grasp the seismic shift in Israel’s defense doctrine from containment to preemption. Hezbollah, even if armed with rudimentary weapons like slingshots, will not be tolerated. Beirut must disarm and disband the Iran-backed militia immediately and will be given one final chance to do so. This is the Easy ...

Will Lebanon Disarm Hezbollah, or Not?

The Lebanese cabinet heard, on Friday, a presentation from Army Chief Rodolphe Haykal on a confidential plan to monopolize arms, as tasked by the government on August 5. The cabinet then issued a statement, and Information Minister Paul Morcos held a press conference. The vague responses left observers divided, with each side interpreting the ...

What if Israel Was Right and the Arabs Were Wrong?

For over five decades, many Arab leaders have blamed Israel’s alleged intransigence, belligerence, and unfulfilled promises for the persistent failure to achieve Arab-Israeli peace. Yet, Lebanon’s handling of the November 2024 Cessation of Hostilities agreement with Israel tells a different story—one where Lebanese leaders, particularly ...

Syria’s Agreement with Israel Is Not as Promising as Advertised

The world is celebrating the anticipated signing of a security agreement between Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and Israel, hailed as evidence of Sharaa’s moderation and a departure from his radical Islamist past. However, this narrative is misleading. Islamist doctrine permits, and even encourages, temporary truces—up to 10 years—with ...

Assad Is Gone. The Syrian Problem Persists

Nine months after Bashar al-Assad's fall and Ahmad al-Sharaa's rise to power, the UN Security Council met to address Syria’s ongoing crisis. The Council urged Damascus to establish a government “of the Syrians, by the Syrians, for the Syrians.” Despite the change in leadership, the Security Council views Syria as a failing state. Damascus ...

Lebanon’s Death by a Thousand Hezbollah Cuts

It took Lebanon’s cabinet six months to even begin discussing the fate of Hezbollah’s arsenal. Whatever decision emerges will go to the Higher Defense Council for further deliberation and planning, then to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to devise an implementation strategy. If each step takes as long as the first, disarming Hezbollah could be ...

Replacing Iran with Turkey Is a Recipe for Disaster in Syria

The Syrian revolution was not an uprising for liberty, freedom, or democracy. It was a manifestation of Sunni Islamists, backed by Turkey and Qatar, venting their rage against the rule of Assad, supported by Shia Islamist Iran. Syria’s Sunni Islamists did not care that Assad was a brutal dictator; they sought to replace him with their own ...

Why No States for the Druze or the Kurds?

Self-determination in the Middle East is inconsistent. For Muslim Palestinians, statehood is seen as an unfulfilled destiny. Yet for religious minorities like the Druze or ethnic groups like the Kurds, pursuing sovereignty is branded as betrayal or capitulation to imperialism. There’s no clear logic to why Israel should be divided into two ...

Hezbollah Is a State within the State, Not Only “Heavy and Medium” Weapons

In policy, simplicity is valuable; naiveté is catastrophic. Lebanon has by now diluted UNSCR 1701 from dismantling Hezbollah’s militia, arms production, and illicit funding to merely surrendering “heavy and medium” weapons, or as U.S. Envoy Tom Barrack frames it: Hezbollah must hand over weapons that threaten Israel. Such oversimplification ...