- 13:35
For the first time since 2019, Washington has eased sanctions on Damascus, granting a 180-day exemption under the Caesar Act to allow certain “humanitarian” and “civilian” transactions.
The move, though temporary, carries clear political weight. It appears to be a test to see how far neighboring countries can reconnect with the Syrian market without breaking the regime’s isolation.
Lebanon, closely linked to Syria through geography, trade, and family ties, is watching the development with a mix of interest and caution.
Lebanese Investors Still Reluctant
Political analyst Ali Hamadeh says the suspension offers only a limited window. “It’s a temporary pause. I don’t expect any Lebanese investment until all sanctions are lifted,” he said.
Lebanon’s fragile economy, he argues, is the main obstacle. “Our companies aren’t strong enough to take that kind of risk, especially given the crisis we’re facing here. Only large Arab firms from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, or maybe Qatar can afford to invest in Syria.”
Hamadeh also highlights the country’s paralyzed financial sector, which cannot support overseas expansion. “The banking sector has collapsed and hasn’t recovered. A cash-based economy isn’t reliable for serious investment.”
For Hamadeh, the easing of the Caesar Act is mainly a political gesture rather than a real opportunity. Lebanese businesses, he says, are too weak to venture into a market still burdened by sanctions.
A Narrow Window of Opportunity, Says Fouad Zmokhol
Fouad Zmokhol, dean of the Faculty of Business and Management at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, sees a small but meaningful opportunity. “This isn’t a wide-open door. It’s a window of opportunity,” he said. “It must be paired with a clear plan, a strategy for the short, medium, and long term, and above all a financial framework that protects investors.”
Zmokhol notes that the move has already sparked interest among some Lebanese and Arab entrepreneurs. “There is strong appetite, but nothing concrete yet. This is just the beginning. We hope it quickly turns into a plan and action on the ground.”
Key Sectors: Construction, Energy, Logistics, Tourism
Zmokhol identifies several sectors likely to attract investment. “Construction comes first, because there is so much to rebuild, both public and private. Then energy, including electricity, solar, and new sources, since Syria’s infrastructure is outdated,” he said.
He also emphasizes logistics, both domestic and cross-border, which has become crucial after years of war and the destruction of vital infrastructure. “Bridges were cut, roads damaged, connections by land, sea, and air need to be restored.”
Other promising sectors include trade, industry, and tourism. “The hotel sector is already attracting investors. Hotel prices in Damascus are sky-high because demand far exceeds supply. Large chains could make a comeback.”
Zmokhol cautions that optimism should be tempered until funds actually start flowing. “We’ll have to wait and see if this recovery is solid,” he said.
Can Lebanon Benefit?
According to Zmokhol, Lebanon is well placed to profit from Syria’s reconstruction if it finds the right way to engage.
“Lebanon can benefit because it is strong in key sectors: construction, industry, trade, tourism, and energy. Lebanese SMEs have been waiting for this moment for fifteen years,” he said.
He also notes that Syria has so far been cautious toward Lebanese businesses.
“So far, we haven’t seen much openness. There may even be some resistance or a lack of appeal,” he said.
To overcome this, Zmokhol calls for rebuilding Syrian-Lebanese partnerships.
“Lebanese companies will need local partners or will have to create joint ventures with international firms seeking Lebanese collaborators.”
Even some Lebanese banks, despite their challenges, “are ready to participate partially in financing or fund transfers,” he added, provided a clear political and legal framework is in place.
Between Caution and Optimism
The perspectives of Hamadeh and Zmokhol reflect two complementary realities. Lebanon is economically weakened and ill-prepared to take on external risks, yet its entrepreneurial network hopes for a revival, fueled by the reconstruction of a neighboring country in transition.
Both experts agree that the coming months will be crucial. If the Caesar Act suspension evolves into a lasting lifting of sanctions and is supported by a clear financial framework, it could reopen the path to closer Syrian-Lebanese economic ties. Without that, Lebanon is likely to remain, as often, a bystander to a regional recovery in which it should naturally play a leading role.
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