With negotiations stalled and no clarity over Iran’s nuclear stockpiles, regional experts warn that another conflict with Israel could be inevitable, according to The New York Times in an article published on November 9. The 2015 nuclear deal, designed to limit Iran’s enrichment, expired last month. Sanctions have been reinstated, and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, enough to make 11 nuclear weapons, remains unaccounted for.
With Iran denying inspectors access to key sites, including the newly fortified Pickaxe Mountain facility, fears are mounting across the Middle East of an impending confrontation with Israel, which regards Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat. Iranian officials have indicated that missile factories are operating 24/7, and officials in Tehran have vowed a forceful retaliation should Israel launch further attacks, as stated in The New York Times article.
“Israel feels the job is unfinished and sees no reason not to resume the conflict, so Iran is doubling down on preparedness for the next round,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
The region’s Arab powers, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE, seek to maintain influence over Washington while avoiding another war. Syria’s new president is also engaging the U.S., signaling shifting alliances in the region. Analysts note that Iran, while weakened, remains capable of creating instability through proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and the Gulf.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticized U.S. hostility and blocked new direct negotiations, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected direct talks and an end to enrichment, offering only indirect negotiations under strict conditions. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirmed that most of Iran’s enriched uranium survived recent strikes, but its exact status is unclear.
“Both camps in Iran consider another round of confrontation with Israel inevitable,” Vaez told The New York Times, adding that the country is preparing for a more intense conflict than in June.
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