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Following the record-breaking rally at the end of 2024, cocoa has plummeted to its lowest point in nearly 20 months. This sharp downturn is largely due to favorable weather conditions in West Africa and a slowdown in global demand. Could this price correction mark the beginning of a new phase for the chocolate market?

The frenzy that gripped the cocoa market seems to be fading. In December 2024, the price per ton hit nearly $12,000, a historic high driven by fears of a worldwide shortage. However, since the summer of 2025, prices have dropped below $6,000, reaching their lowest point since February 2024, according to Bloomberg.

This shift signals the end of a speculative cycle that lasted nearly two years. “Prices had reached levels that were not sustainable in the long run,” said an analyst quoted by the Financial Times, noting that the market had been propelled by fears of poor harvests combined with a surge of speculative investment.

Why Did Prices Soar?

Between 2023 and 2024, cocoa prices skyrocketed, quadrupling in value. Several structural and climatic challenges were at play.

West Africa, which supplies over 60% of the world’s cocoa, saw its harvests hit hard by diseases affecting cocoa trees (especially the swollen-shoot virus) as well as extreme weather linked to climate change, Bloomberg reports.

The major producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, have struggled to maintain production levels. Faced with this scarcity, investors rushed in, betting on sustained price increases. The resulting speculative bubble was fueled by market optimism – until it finally ran out of steam.

What Caused the Trend to Turn?

Since mid-August 2025, several key developments have eased the pressure on the cocoa market. First, heavy rains in West Africa have reduced the risk of poor harvests. This led to more optimistic production forecasts for the 2025-2026 season and prompted an immediate drop in prices.

At the same time, global demand weakened. According to Bloomberg, the record prices of 2024 discouraged both chocolate manufacturers and consumers. Some producers adjusted their recipes to use less cocoa, while consumers, impacted by rising living costs, reduced their chocolate consumption.

Last but not least, speculative investors hastened the decline by quickly offloading their futures contracts. Expecting the market to reverse, they increased the supply available on the market, which further pushed prices downward.

Delayed Impact on Chocolate Prices

Unfortunately for chocolate lovers, the recent plunge in cocoa prices won’t immediately translate into lower prices for chocolate bars and sweets. In the cocoa industry, there is typically a delay of several months between shifts in commodity prices and changes at the retail level. This means chocolate will remain pricey for a while yet.

Bloomberg reports that global cocoa production could surpass consumption by about 186,000 tons in the coming season, more than double last year’s surplus. However, this is unlikely to bring prices back to the levels seen before 2023, when a ton of cocoa traded between $2,000 and $3,000. The Financial Times highlights ongoing structural challenges in West African production, including aging plantations, underinvestment and competition from illegal gold mining in Ghana. In fact, Ghana risks losing its spot as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer to Ecuador, which is considered more dynamic and better organized.

Though the cocoa price boom seems to have passed, the industry remains fragile. The global market is entering a phase of adjustment where prices could stabilize at a level that is more sustainable, but still relatively high.

For consumers, this means chocolate will continue to be expensive; for producers, it’s a struggle to build resilience amid climate uncertainty and market volatility. So next time you enjoy a piece of chocolate, keep in mind: behind every sweet bite lies a complex and sometimes bittersweet market.