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Inaugurated on September 9, 2025, after 14 years of construction, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam elevates Ethiopia into the ranks of Africa’s energy powers. Yet, this technical achievement, built on the Blue Nile, disrupts the regional balance and rekindles tensions with Egypt and Sudan, both anxious about their water security.
After 14 years of work, Ethiopia has inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest hydroelectric project on the continent, located on the Blue Nile near the Sudanese border.
The dam is 1.8 kilometers long and 170 meters high, with a reservoir capable of storing 74 billion cubic meters of water. Its generating capacity reaches 5,150 megawatts – more than double the country’s current output. The project is expected to supply electricity to between 30 and 40 million people and enable exports to neighboring states, notably Sudan and Kenya.
China is home to the two largest hydroelectric dams, which the country began developing decades ago to power its rapid economic growth and reduce dependence on coal. The most powerful is the Three Gorges Dam, with a capacity of 22,500 megawatts, followed by the Baihetan Dam at 16,000 megawatts. Both are located on the Yangtze, the country’s longest river.
Apart from China, only Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Canada operate dams with a capacity similar to or exceeding that of the GERD, according to Global Energy Monitor data, current as of April.
In Africa, the GERD overtakes the Kariba Dam, put into operation in 1959 on the Zambezi River, which remains the main source of hydroelectric power for Zambia and Zimbabwe with a capacity of 2,130 megawatts.
The project was financed primarily by the Ethiopian central bank, government bonds and public contributions, after foreign lenders declined to provide support. The dam has become a symbol of national pride and Ethiopia’s ambition to become a major energy player in the region.
The Ethiopian government firmly asserts its sovereign to harness the Blue Nile’s resources. Authorities maintain that the GERD is vital for economic development, reducing energy poverty and achieving the country’s energy independence. They insist that the project does not cause significant harm to downstream countries. They remain open to dialogue, yet reject any external interference in the dam’s operation.
Egypt: Fear of an Existential Threat
For Egypt, the GERD is seen as a direct threat to its water security. Relying on the Nile for 97% of its drinking water and agricultural needs, the country fears that filling the dam’s reservoir could reduce the river’s flow, especially during periods of drought.
The Egyptian government has called for legally binding agreements to regulate the dam’s filling and operation. Cairo considers Ethiopia’s decision unilateral and has raised its concerns with the UN Security Council. The situation has also strengthened Egypt’s regional diplomacy, including strategic alliances aimed at limiting Ethiopia’s influence.
Sudan: Weighing Risks and Opportunities
Located downstream of the GERD, Sudan finds itself in a delicate middle ground. The country stands to benefit from the electricity generated by the dam, a valuable resource to help ease its own energy shortages. At the same time, it worries that a rapid filling of the reservoir could disrupt water levels, impacting agriculture, irrigation and the hydroelectric output of its own dams.
This balancing act places Sudan in a tricky position: supporting the dam to gain its advantages while safeguarding its water and agricultural interests. Trilateral negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt have taken place, but no definitive agreement has yet been reached.
High-Stakes Regional Implications
Despite ongoing tensions, some neighboring countries, including Sudan and Kenya, have shown interest in importing electricity from the GERD. The dam therefore represents both a development opportunity and a diplomatic challenge, underscoring the geopolitical complexities of sharing the Nile’s resources.
The region’s future will depend largely on the ability of these countries to engage in constructive dialogue and cooperation, ensuring that the GERD becomes a catalyst for shared development rather than a source of conflict.
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