- 12:30
Droughts, tariffs, and speculation are hitting coffee hard, turning a kilogram of beans into black gold, not just in your cup. From Brazil to Lebanon, coffee lovers are paying dearly for their daily fix.
Thought your morning espresso was safe? Think again. In 2025, Arabica prices soared nearly 80%, according to Bellwether Coffee, and the rise shows no signs of slowing. The impact is felt by producers, cafés, and consumers alike. In Lebanon, where every price hike stings twice as much, savoring your coffee has become a luxury, with bitterness lingering both in the cup and in everyday life.
Why Are Prices Soaring?
Climate shocks, trade barriers, and speculation are brewing a perfect storm for coffee lovers.
Brazil, the world’s top producer, has faced droughts and cold snaps that slashed harvests, says the World Bank.
On top of that, US tariffs of 50% on Brazilian coffee, introduced in 2025, pushed prices even higher, reports the Washington Post.
Speculators, meanwhile, are driving prices up by capitalizing on the market’s volatility.
Yet demand remains strong. Consumers are unwilling to give up their daily caffeine fix, making the price hike even more bitter.
Who’s Paying the Price?
Small producers see little benefit, earning only around 5% of the global coffee revenue, tiny crumbs in a $200 billion market, notes EatingWell.
Roasters and cafés pass on the increases but feel the pinch themselves. Consumers bear the brunt, with prices rising sharply at retail and on café terraces.
Prices in Numbers
At the start of 2025, Arabica hit $7.67 per kilo, nearly three times higher than a year earlier (+79%, according to Bellwether Coffee). By August, US tariffs drove prices up another 30%, reports Reuters.
In the US, retail coffee rose 14.5% in July, reaching $18 per kilo according to Barron’s, while an espresso now costs $1–2 more at your local café notes the Washington Post.
Lebanon Feels the Coffee Crunch
In the land of strong coffee and long conversations, global price surges are hitting hard. A kilo of coffee, sold for around $5.80 in January 2025, now costs between $8.35 and $10.31, a jump of roughly 60% in just a few months.
In a country already suffocating under inflation, seeing coffee turn into a semi-luxury item adds a bitter note to everyday life.
When Espresso Becomes a Luxury
Around the world, coffee is becoming a semi-luxury product. Prices are soaring, but demand remains stronger than inflation, as no one really wants to give it up.
In Lebanon, the situation is even starker. In a country where prices are skyrocketing across the board, coffee remains one of the last small pleasures.
Cooperatives, NGOs, and responsible brands around the world are trying to change that by investing in sustainable farming practices, climate-resilient varieties, and fair compensation for small producers, notes EatingWell.
This glimmer of hope suggests that tomorrow, coffee could be not only affordable but also ethical.
Coffee thus reflects a double reality: our dependence on a daily drink and our vulnerability to climate, economic, and political shocks. In short, your morning espresso now costs much more, but giving it up would cost your mood even more. So smile: even if the cup comes at a high price, it’s still full, and that’s something.
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