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3. Nothing Is Going Well for the Mullahs…

By playing Russian roulette for too long, one eventually gets shot. This is the situation Iran's leaders are now facing.

Since 1979, Khomeini and his successors have tried to export their so-called Islamic Revolution throughout the region. Without any success, but with plenty of blood, wars and tears. First in Iraq, then in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza. The only tangible and common result in all these countries is that Iran has managed to plunge them into desolation, ruin and poverty. Until the fatal mistake: their supposedly solid support for Hamas in Gaza, with the “victories” we all know.

Today, Iran faces a crucial choice. There are only two options: either a voluntary retreat from their nuclear program, wrapped in whatever dignity remains, or annihilation. Donald Trump has been clear on this matter.

For now, the mullahs continue to engage in their favorite game—raising the stakes without having much to bet on. They threaten that if the Americans or Israelis attack, they will build a nuclear bomb and strike the entire region. Oh, really? With what? How? Using what resources? As usual, locked away in their palaces and blinded by their own certainties, they fail to see the blow coming. Yet, it is about to hit them if they continue pretending not to understand that their time is up. At best, they might finish destroying Lebanon and Yemen by ordering their local proxies to retaliate on their behalf, or they might try to exert pre-negotiation pressure with their remaining weapons—an effort that has no chance of succeeding. But without a doubt, pro-Iranian militias would rush, obediently, into a collective suicide that their own people do not want—just as the Iranian people themselves have had enough of living in a medieval era far removed from their true historical culture.

So, What Will Happen Next?

In parallel to negotiations between the Americans and Iranians—mediated by the Sultanate of Oman—the Israelis will intensify their military pressure on the crumbling Persian empire’s flanks: Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. For example, it is likely that bombings in Beirut’s southern suburbs will become routine. Hezbollah’s leadership may call on the Lebanese state to “take responsibility” and retaliate, but everyone remembers that this is the same party that dragged the country into a war no one wanted. It is certainly not the Lebanese army’s role to pay the price for Tehran’s reckless decisions.

Inside Iran, it is not impossible that the people—82 million individuals turned into global pariahs by their leaders—will finally take to the streets and overthrow a regime that survives only through terror and executions.

In any scenario, it will be very difficult for the mullahs to “bounce back.” If they give in to American demands, they will be exposed and forced to explain to their population why they have been starving for decades due to wars and sanctions. If they opt for confrontation, they are certain to be crushed.

Either way, a regime change in Iran is looming on the horizon. Until then, the Lebanese people will have to wait, yet again, before they can rebuild.

George Orwell once said, “All propaganda has an expiration date.” The Iranian regime’s time is running out.