Gebran Bassil, the son-in-law of former President Michel Aoun, is hardly envied for his limited options, particularly with the upcoming parliamentary elections. He is growing increasingly concerned about the potential alliance between Majd Harb, son of former MP and Minister Boutros Harb, and the Lebanese Forces (LF) in Batroun, a partnership that threatens his ability to run and secure a win in the district he has represented since 2005 at risk. Additionally, his strained relationship with Hezbollah only complicates matters. Bassil has been outspoken in his dissatisfaction with the support war and has distanced himself from Hezbollah on several key issues during the conflict. This growing divide was symbolized by his absence at the funeral of former Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah at Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium. Politically, Bassil has surrounded himself with hardline Christian figures, notably Naji Hayek, empowering them to make provocative statements — fully aware this would irritate Hezbollah, a reaction he deliberately sought to strengthen his independence from the party.
However, Bassil has come to the realization that he cannot enter the upcoming parliamentary elections without Hezbollah, regardless of his options. He cannot afford to play the opposition card, as it would not benefit him — especially given that, while the current government has lacked significant achievements, the ministers who oppose him have performed exceptionally well. Consequently, Bassil has no choice but to ally with Hezbollah to secure several key seats, particularly in districts where he stands no chance without the party’s support. These include Beirut II, Baabda, Western Beqaa, Zahle, Baalbek-Hermel and even Jbeil, where Hezbollah guarantees him the second Christian seat through preferential votes.
Bassil is entering this battle with a bloc that is six seats short unless he forms an alliance with Hezbollah. Another challenge is the potential loss of his own seat, especially if he decides to step away from Batroun due to the complexities of the race there. If Majd Harb and the Lebanese Forces secure their positions and push him out, benefiting from their ability to win more than two-thirds of the votes, Bassil’s options for running become very limited. He won’t shift his candidacy to Kesrouan, as his father-in-law Michel Aoun once did, because he must preserve Nada Boustani's seat (former MP and minister). He also has no incentive to move to Metn North to challenge Ibrahim Kanaan, as this would pit him against both the Kataeb and LF, where he would likely finish third — a scenario he wants to avoid. Beirut I is not an ideal district for him, especially since the seat belongs to the son of Bachir Gemayel.
His only remaining option is to shift his candidacy to Baabda, according to sources within the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), who suggest he may consider this move. Baabda, Michel Aoun’s hometown, provides Bassil an opportunity to justify the move as his son-in-law. Moreover, Bassil needs Baabda to energize the ‘Aounist’ base there, particularly since Alain Aoun has gained more support than other MPs who left the FPM. However, running in Baabda would require an alliance with Hezbollah, as he would not be able to secure enough votes without it. Additionally, he would face direct competition from the LF, likely finishing second to their candidate, making it difficult for him to claim the top Christian seat.
Bassil is not envied for his limited political and electoral options. However, everything unfolding is a consequence of his own decisions and political approach.
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