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3. Rockets in South Lebanon: A Message of Military and Political Escalation

Lebanese security services are working to identify those truly responsible for the rockets launched from southern Lebanon toward Israel on Saturday. Military intelligence views the attack as suspicious, believing it is an attempt to drag Lebanon back into war. In response, Lebanese authorities are intensifying diplomatic efforts—particularly with the United States—to prevent further escalation.

From a military perspective, neither the method of attack nor its strategic impact—both insignificant compared to Israel’s firepower—matter most.

The key issue lies in the broader implication: regardless of who is responsible, the incident proves that southern Lebanon remains a staging ground for those seeking to inflame tensions with Israel, reignite cycles of violence and expose both the local population and the entire country to renewed dangers. This reality is widely rejected, especially by the people of the South.

The rockets were fired from crude wooden launchers—a technique previously employed by Palestinian factions such as the Popular Front General Command, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, as well as by radical Islamist groups. However, this does not rule out the possibility of involvement by other actors, including Hezbollah, despite its official denial.

Notably, Hezbollah took five hours to issue its denial, raising key questions: Why such a delay? Was it due to difficulties in coordinating a response with its leadership? Or was it an internal verification process to ensure that no faction within the group had acted independently?

Another intriguing detail is that a Hezbollah flag and a photo of Hassan Nasrallah were found near the launch site. Was it an attempt to frame the group? Or could individual Hezbollah members have been involved without official authorization?

Reports suggest growing internal divisions within Hezbollah between those advocating adherence to the ceasefire and implementation of UN Resolution 1701 and those who insist that weapons must remain the decisive factor, regardless of the consequences. Some within the latter camp argue that if Hassan Nasrallah were still alive, he would never have accepted a ceasefire in southern Lebanon while the war in Gaza continued. Under this logic, Saturday’s rocket attack was a direct response to Israel’s renewed military operations in Gaza—an effort to reignite Hezbollah’s military support strategy.

At the same time, there is growing speculation over how Israel, with its extensive surveillance capabilities, failed to detect the preparations for this attack. The launch area—between Kfar Tebnit and Arnoun—is under constant Israeli drone surveillance, frequently tracking Hezbollah operatives and even carrying out targeted assassinations.

As the situation unfolds, some sources stress the urgency of fully implementing Resolution 1701, particularly its core provision: the disarmament of Hezbollah. Lebanon’s timeframe to comply is rapidly shrinking, and the United States is increasing pressure to accelerate negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv. The objective is to establish lasting stability along the border—not necessarily full normalization, but a framework that goes beyond a temporary truce as an initial step.