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3. Hezbollah-PLO: Parallel Fates

In 1982, the Israeli army launched Operation "Peace for Galilee" with the goal of driving Arafat's militias from southern Lebanon. More than mere militias, these were organized armies, and Yasser Arafat reigned as the undisputed ruler and bloodstained overlord of Lebanon. The leader of the PLO had unilaterally declared Lebanon as the launchpad for his attacks against Israel, showing no regard for the country, its army, or its institutions—operating with complete impunity. Israel’s response was a fierce bombardment of the south—a pattern that feels all too familiar today. By June 1982, the triumphant speeches meant to rally a loyal audience had abruptly ceased.

Within days, the Fatah forces were obliterated, their tunnels destroyed—an eerie prelude to a far more recent war. Beirut was surrounded, and a multinational force “extracted” Arafat and the remnants of his forces from the capital, sending them to Tripoli. History soon repeated itself with greater force. In 1983, Syria’s army, under Hafez al-Assad, dealt the final blow. Arafat and his allies had no choice but to board ships and flee to Tunis. That marked the end of the PLO’s armed presence in Lebanon—save for the lawless camps that persist to this day. Then came the Oslo Accords.

Fast forward to today, and there is a disquieting sense that the same script is unfolding once again. This time, the militia making disastrous strategic blunders is Hezbollah. Defeated in the south, its discourse grows increasingly incoherent, even among its own supporters. Alongside a loose coalition of allied tribes, Hezbollah now clashes with the Syrian army in the Bekaa Valley and the north! Even if they deny it, the Iran-backed militia is undeniably at work through its allies. Some of these allies are even deliberately obstructing the deployment of the Lebanese army. Business as usual.

What happens next is anyone’s guess. Will the Syrian army and the Islamist militias march into Lebanon to finally disarm Hezbollah? If so, it will—once again—come at Lebanon’s expense, a nation battered by 50 years of foreign wars on its soil. Could this be yet another misstep by Hezbollah? Or will Lebanon’s people again become pawns in Tehran’s nuclear bargaining with the West? Answers will come soon enough.

As Einstein famously said: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."