- 11
- Mar
- 2025
Iran is clinging to its waning influence in key regional capitals, hoping to maximize leverage in negotiations over its nuclear program. It continues to destabilize Syria and offer hollow rhetorical support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, ignoring the risk of provoking the US administration’s unwavering support to Israel, and the latter’s potential consequences of its reckless, irrational wars.
President Joseph Aoun told an Iranian delegation that visited Lebanon for the recent belated funeral of Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah that “Lebanon is exhausted of serving as a battleground for regional antagonists,” stressing the need to “respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and avoid foreign interference.” But Tehran refuses to relinquish its hold on Lebanon, as evidenced in a recent statement by Ali Akbar Velayati, the Supreme Leader's advisor. “Hezbollah will continue its strong resistance, as the majority of the Lebanese people support it and will stand behind the resistance,” he said.
Iran’s position reinforces its commitment to maintaining a foothold in Lebanon and serves as a challenge to President Aoun and his new administration. This was underscored by the rapid endorsement of Velayati’s stance by Lebanon’s Shiite leadership.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri rejected the international community’s offer of postwar reconstruction aid to Lebanon in exchange for Hezbollah relinquishing its weapons, which is another indication of a potential domestic schism.
Importantly, a Hezbollah member recently declared, “We will shake the earth beneath the enemy’s feet if they persist in their occupation,” referring to the posts in south Lebanon that Israel refused to evacuate in violation of the ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah agreed to the truce that required it to disarm in a buffer south of the Litani River as a first step before its complete disarmament nation-wide. However, the latter argument is a source of disagreement in Lebanon.
Additionally, Velayati's statements reflected an Iranian message that bypasses Lebanon’s official position and directly challenges President Aoun’s international engagements, particularly his outreach to Saudi Arabia and his declaration of Lebanon's return to the Arab fold. Aoun also reaffirmed his support for a policy of neutrality, as outlined in the Baabda Declaration of the last decade.
In its recent “Emergency summit,” the Arab League welcomed Lebanon’s reintegration into the region, offering assistance with reconstruction, contingent on necessary reforms and compliance with UN Resolution 1701.
Diplomatic sources indicate that the region is entering a new phase towards peace, as Syria faces increased regional challenges due to its strategic significance and role.
The country is dealing with the fallout of rising US-European and Russian-European tensions, with the new administration unable to resolve its differences with the Assad regime. Developments in Syria will have a direct impact on Lebanon, especially with the influx of tens of thousands of armed Syrian refugees into areas like Akkar, Hermel and Tripoli in northern Lebanon, raising concerns over potential sectarian conflict.
Sources acknowledge growing international and regional concerns over the situations in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, especially as the Moumana’a Axis places considerable hope in Syria's return to its fold. Efforts are underway to overthrow Ahmad al-Sharaa's regime, with increasing talk of the partition of Syria, which does not rejoin the Moumana’a Axis.
Widespread media suggestions mention that Israel might target – again – Hezbollah’s leadership and weapon depots following the expected US-Russia summit in Riyadh, along with airstrikes on Iran to curb its influence. Israel’s Prime Minister stated that the war will be fought on seven fronts simultaneously to achieve its objectives, and for the first time, Israel has secured the necessary weaponry from Washington.
Meanwhile, Washington is reportedly holding covert talks with Hamas for the release of American prisoners. The Trump administration issued a “last chance” message to Iran, urging a nuclear deal without acquiring weapons. However, Khamenei rejected the offer, denouncing US “thuggery.”
The peace process faces significant hurdles due to competing national interests from across Arab capitals. Sources from Baabda Presidential Palace assert that there is no turning back.
The era of guardianship, dominance and control over Lebanon is over. The only viable solution is for Hezbollah’s weapons to be placed under state control and for Israel to withdraw completely from Lebanon.
The peace process remains on track, with the ceasefire agreement serving as a roadmap under international and regional guidance. The full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 is crucial. Although expected military confrontations may slow the momentum of the current administration, they will not halt its progress.
Comments