- 26
- Feb.
- 2025
Israel has taken a firm stance on its plan for the “total demilitarization” of southern Damascus. “We will not allow forces from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (the group behind the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024) or the new Syrian army to enter the area south of Damascus,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Sunday during a press conference in Holon, in the district of Tel Aviv.
Tensions have been mounting in southern Syria for several days. On Tuesday night, Israeli airstrikes hit multiple military targets, including in al-Kiswah (Rif Dimashq), Izraa and Tell al-Hara (Deraa) and Ain al-Bayda (Quneitra). Commenting on the strikes, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that “any attempt by Syrian forces or the country’s terrorist organizations to gain a foothold in the southern security zone will have serious consequences.” He added that these operations are part of Israel’s “new policy,” aimed at “ridding the region of these weapons.” He further stressed, “The message is clear: we will not allow southern Syria to become another southern Lebanon.”
While these actions align with Israel’s efforts to secure its territory against the “rise of Islamist forces” near its borders, other undisclosed factors may also be fueling the escalating tensions.
“Although backed by certain local factions, the Islamist-led Syrian government is seen as a potential hub for extremist groups with radical ideologies, particularly due to the alliances some of its members maintain with terrorist organizations,” a security source stated. “Israel fears that these forces could further entrench themselves in the south of the country, posing a direct threat to its border,” the source added.
“It is in fact thanks to Israel that Ahmad al-Sharaa (the interim Syrian president) is in power today,” says Fabrice Balanche, a senior lecturer at Lyon 2 University, a specialist in the political geography of the Middle East, and author of Les leçons de la crise syrienne. According to Balanche, “After October 7, 2023 (the date of the Hamas offensive against Israel), Israel decided to push the Iranians as far away as possible from its borders. Following Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli forces targeted Iranian infrastructure in Syria, significantly weakening the Assad regime and allowing HTS to seize power.” Today, Balanche suggests, “The real Israeli strategy (and that of the United States as well) is to pressure Sharaa into making peace with Israel, while ensuring that the Golan remains under Israeli control.”
A Strategic Territory
Southern Syria (which includes the governorates of Sweida, Quneitra and Daraa) is strategically important, not only militarily but also in terms of its demographics and social structure.
Sweida is a Druze stronghold, a religious community that accounts for 3% of Syria's population. “The governorate of Sweida is 95% Druze and 5% Christian,” explains Balanche. He recalls that “during the Syrian war, which began in 2011, the region defended itself with local militias. In November 2024, these militias ousted the Syrian regime's authority in Sweida to take control of the area. Currently, they do not trust the new Syrian administration, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda member.”
In Daraa, the birthplace of the Syrian uprising in 2011, the population is predominantly Sunni, though it also includes minorities of Druze, Christians and Alawites. The same is true for Quneitra, which has a Sunni majority (90-95%). One key figure in the region is Ahmad al-Awda, commander of the Southern Operations Room. A rebel leader who “reached an agreement” with the Syrian regime in 2018, taking command of the 8th Brigade before turning against Assad and seizing Damascus in December 2024, well ahead of HTS. “Financially supported by the United Arab Emirates, Ahmad al-Awda seeks to maintain control over Daraa and Quneitra while rejecting HTS’ presence in both areas,” explains Balanche.
He adds, “By demilitarizing the region, the Israelis would protect the autonomy of the south, potentially paving the way for a federal political model in Syria. This would allow Israel to secure peace with the country while retaining control over the Golan.” The move would also send a strong message to all opponents: Israel’s zero-tolerance policy toward any hostile military presence near its borders.
Syrian Response
Despite the Israeli airstrikes, Syria has refrained from engaging in direct military confrontation so far. The new administration, still grappling with stabilizing the country after 14 years of civil war, has condemned the Israeli incursions into the buffer zone between the two countries, but its capacity to respond remains limited. Expressing strong condemnation of these actions, Ahmad al-Sharaa’s administration has called for the immediate withdrawal of Israeli forces from the area, in line with international resolutions.
However, these calls have largely fallen on deaf ears internationally. As the outcome of this standoff remains uncertain in a region marked by intertwined military, geopolitical and identity-related stakes, any miscalculation could spark an escalation with devastating consequences for the region. The coming days will be critical, and the unfolding events could reshape the trajectory of a conflict that has endured for over a decade.
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