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3. Tariffs: Gold Shines and the Euro Crashes

After a year marked by record highs, gold seems poised to continue its surge in 2025, as investors seek to shield themselves from global economic uncertainties. The trade policies of US President Donald Trump, particularly the new tariffs that could provoke a trade war, dampen economic growth and fuel inflation, will likely benefit gold.

Gold soared in 2024, increasing by 34% and multiplying tenfold over 26 years, a trend that seems set to continue. Indeed, the protectionist measures adopted by the United States will likely disrupt the global trade balance. By imposing high tariffs on imports from Europe, Mexico, Canada and China, Trump has exacerbated international trade tensions. These decisions will contribute to global economic instability, fears of recessions and economic slowdowns, undoubtedly benefitting gold.

Gold as a Safe Haven

In this context of instability, gold stands out as a safe haven, considered a reliable asset during times of economic crisis or geopolitical tensions because its price remains relatively stable compared to that of traditional currencies.

Trump's policy has indirectly favored the purchase of gold. As the euro and yen depreciate against the dollar, many investors are flocking to the precious metal, convinced that it will hold its value amid the coming economic turbulence. As a result, the price of gold, boosted by sustained demand, is setting new records.

The Impact on the Euro

Furthermore, the political and economic uncertainties generated by this trade war and its impact on international trade have led to the weakening of certain currencies, notably the euro. The European currency has thus seen its value drop (1.03) against the US dollar.

The weakening of the euro against the dollar has significant consequences for European economies. Exports become more competitive, but this can also lead to higher import costs, increasing inflationary pressures. Additionally, as the euro is often used for various global investments, its decline also negatively impacts the perception of financial stability in its economic zone.

The record highs in gold prices and the decline of the euro are signs of global economic upheaval, fueled by the political choices of the Trump administration. While gold shines as a safe haven, it is also a reflection of trade and economic tensions.