The M23, a Rwanda-backed armed group, has seized most of Goma, a key city of a million people in the mineral-rich eastern DR Congo. Analysts say their motives combine security and economic interests with the deadly momentum of war.
Why did Rwanda and M23 take Goma?
Rwanda's President Paul Kagame says its priority in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is to destroy the Democratic Liberation Front of Rwanda (FDLR in French), formed from remnants of the forces which committed the 1994 genocide.
Many say Rwanda is more interested in the region's rich resources of tantalum and tin used in batteries and electronics worldwide as well as gold.
"There is a desire to control the resources of eastern Congo," said Thierry Vircoulon, of the French Institute of International Relations, dismissing talk of the FDLR as a "pretext".
But Bram Verelst, of Africa's Institute for Security Studies, said it was vital to understand that Rwanda's security concerns stemmed from its horrific recent history.
"The Rwandan state today is largely built on the experience of the 1994 genocide against the Tutsis. It's extremely sensitive to what it perceives as genocide ideology, or any form of opposition," he said.
"The way it perceives the FDLR as an existential threat goes beyond the actual military capabilities of the group." He also said there was an inescapable momentum to the conflict.
"A lot of what is happening now is the result of this mutual pursuit of a military approach that leads to more and more escalation."
Can M23 hold Goma?
The M23 took Goma once before in 2012 but international pressure on Rwanda and internal divisions within the group led to its defeat.
"This time we're less likely to see a split because it is much more deeply involved with the Rwandan Defense Forces," said an analyst for Janes, a defence intelligence company, who asked not be named.
The M23 is determined to show it can govern effectively.
"They spend a lot of time in their propaganda critiquing the poor governance and corruption of the Congolese government," said the analyst.
Vircoulon was sceptical about its prospects.
"The M23 does not have a lot of fighters. It will be very difficult to hold a city of one million," he said.
Rwanda ultimately wants to force the Congolese into talks with the M23, which they have so far refused.
"As long as Kinshasa maintains this position, Kagame will not budge either. And so we risk a stalemate that lasts," said Vircoulon.
Will the M23 go further?
Rwanda's ambassador for the Great Lakes region, Vincent Karega, told AFP on Wednesday that the M23 could seize territory far beyond Goma, even going all the way to Kinshasa.
"It's possible because all the (DRC) forces and military capabilities were concentrated in Goma. The rest of the country is not as protected," he said.
Analysts said that was highly unlikely given the vast size of the country and the conflict's dynamics.
But Verelst said it will keep pushing north to Lubero, south to Bukavu and west to Walikelo.
"It is certainly a possibility that we could see further expansion on multiple fronts, but it's also a bit uncertain now, because the M23 needs to consolidate its gains," he said.
The recent offensive has demonstrated the challenges faced by the Congolese army.
"The Congolese military has had significant issues with corruption, misappropriation of funding for equipment. Lack of pay has been a huge problem for morale," said the Janes analyst.
He said the DRC army had invested $280 million since 2022, expanding training, taking on Israeli private military contractors and European partners to create Rapid Reaction Brigades.
"But although they look the part, we've seen they haven't stood up to the M23 and Rwandan Defense Forces."
Last month, DRC President Felix Tshisekedi dismissed his army chief of staff, Christian Tshiwewe, following failures on the eastern battlefield and reports of mass corruption in the recruitment of new troops.
By Eric Randolph and Julie Capelle, AFP
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