- 08:30
Erdogan seems to be indomitable and relentless in pursuing his ambitions. He just pulled off a remarkable masterstroke: toppling the Assad regime, with an American green light and a tacit Russian approval. Once shunned and labeled the gravedigger of Ataturk’s secular legacy – not to mention contested in the ballot box – he has now staged a comeback at the center of Middle Eastern geopolitics. Distrusted by all, he nonetheless remains indispensable. The first to grasp the new reality are the Kurds – his sworn enemies. For now, they are keeping a low profile in northeastern Syria, sheltered under the protective umbrella of US military presence. At least for now.
For the past few days, Ankara has been the focal point for diplomats from across the globe. The Lebanese prime minister has made the trip, joining delegations arriving from all directions to meet the new sultan at the helm of Turkey’s power. Reaching this stage has required considerable effort from the Arab world – only to ultimately highlight its powerlessness.
The Arab League, for instance, is incapable of addressing even the smallest crisis. From Gaza to Lebanon, Syria, Sudan, Yemen and Libya, the issues are countless. Yet, not a single serious initiative was put forward. Instead, it churns out bland statements that only highlight its glaring failure across the board. It’s almost easy to forget its existence. This is nothing new: the 22 Arab countries remain utterly incapable of any collective action, even when it comes to one of their own members and its future. In the absence of leadership – because politics abhors a vacuum – other players have stepped in to make decisions for 400 million Arabs.
These other players are Iran, Turkey and Israel – three powers with conflicting interests, further fragmenting the “Arab world.” Since 1979, Iran has been dedicated to exporting its “revolution.” The much-discussed Shiite crescent, carefully built by Tehran, has now crumbled. Whether it’s to the liking of those involved or not, Israel has secured victories over Hamas and Hezbollah. With the rise of anti-Iranian intervention forces in Damascus, the flow of weapons and funds has dried up.
The Iraqis have made it clear to their Shiite militias that continuing to puff up with arrogance while certain of getting crushed is unwise. The message has been heard, and these militias have announced an end to attacks on Israel from Iraq. The Houthis, however, remain blinded by their own delusions. In a few weeks, they will join the ranks of the losers. What follows is the great showdown with Iran. With Israel emerging victorious and the mullahs on the back foot, Turkey has seized this moment to make its public move.
Erdogan is the big winner. He has established himself as the primary interlocutor for the Sunni Arab world. From now on, nothing will be done without the approval of the Ottoman Empire 2.0.
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