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3. 'Maximum Pressure 2.0' on Iran: The First Step Toward the Regime's Collapse?

Repeated statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President-elect Donald Trump suggest that the primary focus of the two allies will be to exert maximum pressure on the Iranian regime. Based on these statements, what conclusions can be drawn about the future of the region?

For several months now, international political discourse has largely centered around one key issue: Iran. More specifically, the repeated statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President-elect Donald Trump suggest that the main focus of the two allies is to apply maximum pressure on the Iranian regime.

On one side, Trump has announced that he is exploring ways to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, including the option of preemptive airstrikes. On the other side, Netanyahu has stated that the Iranian axis is collapsing due to a "chain reaction" initiated by Israel, expressing hope that Iran could "be free" and pursue global peace.

What should be inferred from the momentum created by this parallel Israeli-American discourse? Would the two states go as far as permanently dismantling the Iranian regime?

A US Strategy of Maximum Pressure

According to reports on Friday by the American Newspaper the Wall Street Journal, the incoming US administration is planning a "maximum pressure 2.0" campaign against Tehran, which could include threats of military action or even support for an Israeli strike, while seeking to avoid a full-scale war.

Should this military approach materialize, it would mark a departure from the long-standing policy of containing Tehran through diplomacy and sanctions. However, political analyst Karim Sader cautions that "one should not take Donald Trump's statements at face value, given his tendency to shift his rhetoric and positions." In this context, "we should not assume that Trump is about to attack Iran based on a single statement, especially since the elected president paradoxically appointed Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief, as a special envoy for Iran earlier this week," Sader explains. This decision signals "a clear intent to engage in dialogue," which contradicts the military threat outlined on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal’s report comes amid growing concerns in Israel, which is reportedly preparing plans for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, driven by fears that the Islamic Republic, on the brink of acquiring a nuclear weapon, may rush to do so.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Trump told Netanyahu during recent calls that he aimed to prevent an Iranian nuclear breakthrough during his term, while avoiding a new war that would specifically involve US troops.

An Israeli Military Campaign

Meanwhile, Netanyahu directly addressed the Iranian people in a video released on Thursday, marking his third such message in just a few months. "You suffer under the control of a regime that oppresses you and threatens us. This regime fears you, the Iranian people. And one day, I know that one day, this will change. One day, Iran will be free," he stated, speaking in English with Persian subtitles.

"This is the dawn of peace. And I have no doubt that we will achieve this future together, much sooner than people think. I know and believe that we will turn the Middle East into a beacon of prosperity, progress and peace," he continued.

He also pointed out that Iranian leaders had "spent more than $30 billion to support Assad in Syria," before his regime "crumbled to dust."

"Your oppressors have spent billions to support Hamas in Gaza. Today, their regime is in ruins," he added. "Your oppressors spent more than $20 billion to support Hezbollah in Lebanon. In just a few weeks, most of Hezbollah’s leadership, its rockets and its thousands of fighters were wiped out."

Commenting on the speech, Sader notes that "Netanyahu’s government appears to be trying to set the course for what the future Trump administration should do. It is in Netanyahu’s interest to continue his military escalation, potentially leading to an attack on Iran, confident of US support."

However, the Middle East expert clarifies, "the two agendas don’t necessarily align, as the US seeks to maintain two poles in the region — one Shiite and one Sunni — rather than seeing the Iranian regime fall." Moreover, Trump’s agenda is "that of a businessman who wants a pacified region and a climate conducive to business," Sader adds, contrasting with Netanyahu’s hawkish stance.

Towards the Toppling of the Iranian Regime?

Currently, Iran is significantly weakened by the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, driven by its proxies. Hamas is still embroiled in its war with Israel in Gaza. Hezbollah has been engaged in clashes with the Israeli Army for over a year. A ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel was only reached on November 27, 2024, following devastating losses for both Hezbollah and Lebanon. In Syria, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a crushing defeat for the Persian ally, dismantling the axis Iran had built from Yemen through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon.

Sader advises great caution and warns against drawing hasty conclusions. He believes that it is not appropriate to compare the Iranian regime to the Syrian regime and, by false analogy, predict its downfall with similar ease. "A Syrian-style scenario cannot be imagined in Iran, as the dynamics and actors are different," he argues.

"Certainly, Iran's regional influence has been weakened, its footholds in the Mediterranean have suffered significant blows, and in the case of Bashar al-Assad, a fatal one. However, this does not mean that the regime is on the verge of collapse like Assad's, which was already known to be weakened and propped up by Russia and Iran."

“Furthermore,” Sader adds, “the mullahs' regime has shown its ability to regenerate by creating alternatives within its own structure. It is therefore far too early to suggest that the Iranian regime could disintegrate quickly.”