The Caesar Act: Implications for Syria and Lebanon’s Economy After Assad
©SAMEER AL-DOUMYAFP / AFPAFP

The Caesar Act, imposed by the United States in 2019 to sanction Bashar al-Assad’s regime and its allies, further deepened Syria's economic isolation. Talks are now underway about lifting this sanctions law, a move that could promote relative economic stability in the region and inevitably benefit Lebanon.

Recently, social media has been flooded with images and videos exposing the extent of the suffering endured by detainees in Syrian prisons, particularly in the notorious Saydnaya prison, dubbed the “human slaughterhouse.” Some detainees were released in a state of unconsciousness or memory loss, while others were disoriented and unaware of their surroundings. Some even believed that Hafez al-Assad was still in power.

These atrocities, perpetrated under Bashar al-Assad's regime, led Western countries to impose sanctions on Assad, his regime, and anyone linked to it, citing moral and humanitarian reasons. This action followed the leak of over 55,000 images by a former Syrian military photographer, known by the alias "Caesar," who fled Syria in 2013. Tasked with documenting deaths in military prisons, his pictures ultimately prompted the US Congress to pass sanctions against Syria under what became known as the Caesar Act.

What Is the Caesar Act?

The Caesar Act is a US law enacted in December 2019, designed to impose economic and trade sanctions on the Syrian government and Bashar al-Assad's regime, along with individuals and entities involved in supporting the regime or committing human rights violations in Syria. The law targets companies or individuals conducting business with the Syrian government, including those providing financial or technical assistance to the regime. It also sanctions individuals connected to Syrian regime leaders or those involved in military and security operations used against civilians. Moreover, the law aims to punish anyone or any entity that helps enhance the Syrian government's ability to deploy chemical weapons or supports its crackdown on opposition groups.

Moreover, the Caesar Act has a significant impact on the Syrian economy by imposing severe sanctions on vital sectors such as energy and banking, hindering the regime's ability to manage the economy and import essential goods like fuel and basic commodities. The law also restricts the regime's ability to engage with international companies, making it increasingly difficult to attract investments or establish trade partnerships, further isolating Syria economically. As a result, the value of the Syrian pound has plummeted, affecting the people’s purchasing power and fueling rising inflation.

Will the US Lift Sanctions on Syria Following Assad’s Departure?

In response to this question, political analyst and writer Ibrahim Rihan explained to This is Beirut that the sanctions fall into two categories:

The first category directly targets Bashar al-Assad and his family, as well as his close associates, including officials and businessmen. These sanctions are unlikely to be lifted, especially after the unveiling of human rights abuses in Syrian prisons.

The second category of sanctions pertains to the Syrian regime as a whole. Syria will remain under international scrutiny for the time being, particularly regarding the new regime’s treatment of minorities, weapons control, anti-corruption measures, promotion of democratic freedoms and efforts to improve foreign relations. Rihan noted that lifting the sanctions could take months, or even up to a year, until the situation becomes clearer to the international community. He added that economic and financial stability in Syria would positively affect Lebanon.

How Might Lifting the Caesar Act Impact Lebanon's Economy?

If the Caesar Act is lifted, Lebanon’s economy stands to benefit in several key ways, including:

1. Enhanced trade exchanges: Lifting sanctions on Syria could facilitate increased trade between Lebanon and Syria, boosting the flow of goods and commodities across the border. This would particularly benefit Lebanese businesses dependent on the Syrian market.

2. Increased foreign investment: Easing economic pressures on the Syrian regime could attract more foreign investments into Syria, which would, in turn, positively impact Lebanon’s economy through strengthened commercial ties.

3. Revitalization of transport and supply chains: Lifting sanctions could restore commercial traffic through Syrian ports, providing faster and more secure routes for goods to reach Lebanon, thereby alleviating some of the logistical challenges currently hindering Lebanon's economy.

4. Boosting the tourism sector: An improvement in Syria’s economic conditions could positively impact Lebanon's tourism industry, with the country potentially benefiting from an influx of Syrian tourists who may visit once again.

5. Alleviating economic pressures: Lifting the sanctions could help ease Lebanon’s financial crisis, which has been exacerbated by the indirect effects of the sanctions on its economy. This includes disruptions in trade with countries adhering to the sanctions and the decline in economic activity due to the ongoing Syrian crisis.

Overall, lifting the Caesar Act could foster relative economic stability in the region, potentially benefiting Lebanon if it effectively capitalizes on the economic opportunities that emerge after the sanctions are lifted.

Comments
  • No comment yet