We have become accustomed to victory cries, as victory is ultimately a matter of perspective.
Yet, the jubilant cheers in the streets, whether amidst destruction or not, fail to capture the true geopolitical landscape.
Hezbollah has, in effect, signed a total surrender agreement, irrespective of its public or private statements.
By agreeing to a ceasefire, Hezbollah has given Israel the freedom to act on land, sea and air whenever it perceives a threat to its security. This is no trivial matter, it is a formal surrender. It allows Israel to strike from Akkar to Naqoura if it deems its security at risk, without needing to justify its actions to Lebanon. Israel only needs to inform the monitoring committee, without waiting for its approval.
On the other hand, the first clause of the agreement emphasizes that no attacks against Israel will be launched from Lebanon. The longstanding rationale for resistance that Hezbollah has ardently upheld in its political and military discourse for over four decades has now dissolved. This includes the written pledge it made, vowing never to engage in any form of aggression against Israel. The claim of liberating Jerusalem and reclaiming Palestine has proven to be a lie. Protecting Lebanese territory from the north of the Litani River is no longer feasible. What about the south of the Litani— is that not Lebanese land? Hezbollah has now abandoned any ambitions for military action across the region, as though its operations will be confined to Beirut alone. We witnessed a glimpse of this on May 7.
In any case, Hezbollah may persist in proclaiming victory indefinitely. In reality, it behaves like anyone accused of defamation when brought before an investigator: they are shown the complaint and given two choices—either apologize and sign a pledge not to harm the plaintiff, or face the possibility of trial and conviction. In this scenario, Hezbollah chose to sign the commitment not to engage in further aggression. Yet, the plaintiff reserves the right to express their displeasure in any manner they deem suitable.
Congratulations on the victory.
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