1. Home
2. World
3. The Growing Risk of Nuclear Conflict and the Shadow of World War III

During his US presidential campaigns, Donald Trump frequently expressed concerns about the potential for World War III, often blaming rising global tensions on the foreign policy decisions of the Biden administration. He specifically criticized actions he views as provocative or escalatory, such as the administration's approval of sending anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, a significant policy shift. This decision followed closely on the heels of the US permitting Ukraine to deploy long-range missiles against targets in Russia, marking a substantial escalation in military aid during the ongoing conflict.

These actions, according to Trump, exemplify policies that increase the likelihood of a broader conflict rather than de-escalating tensions. He has repeatedly argued that such measures risk pushing the world closer to a catastrophic global war.

The world stands at a perilous crossroads, with the threat of nuclear conflict no longer confined to the shadowy geopolitics of the Cold War but reemerging as a central global concern. As arms control agreements falter and nations like Russia, China, and North Korea expand their arsenals, the risk of catastrophic escalation grows. Recent events, including Russia's suspension of the New START Treaty and China's accelerated nuclear build-up, have added fuel to an already volatile international environment. Meanwhile, flashpoints such as Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East provide fertile ground for conflicts that could spiral out of control, involving nuclear powers in a potential World War III. The specter of a nuclear conflict looms larger as geopolitical tensions escalate, driven by military buildups, failed arms control agreements, and increased rhetoric from nuclear-armed states. This environment raises concerns about the potential triggers for a global conflict and the nations most likely to be involved.

In recent years, the erosion of key arms control agreements has intensified global insecurity. Russia's suspension of the New START Treaty in 2023 has left the world's largest nuclear arsenals — Russia's and the United States’ — without constraints, fostering a potential arms race. Meanwhile, China is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities, with projections suggesting its arsenal could double by 2035, underscoring a growing tripolar nuclear competition between the US, Russia, and China.

Additionally, North Korea continues to develop its nuclear and missile programs, frequently testing weapons and openly threatening adversaries like South Korea and the United States. In the Middle East, concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions persist, with ongoing tensions exacerbating regional instability.

What Are the Possible Flashpoints for World War III?

The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a critical flashpoint. As Russia's military campaign falters, the risk of Moscow resorting to tactical nuclear weapons grows, especially if its conventional forces face defeat. NATO's involvement in Ukraine, coupled with Russia's rhetoric about the alliance's expansion, could escalate the conflict into a broader war. Russia had been warning the West for months that if Washington allowed Ukraine to fire US, British, and French missiles deep into Russia, Moscow would consider those NATO members to be directly involved in the war in Ukraine. Putin recently lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks, and Moscow said Ukraine had struck deep inside Russia with US-made ATACMS missiles. The updated Russian nuclear doctrine, establishing a framework for conditions under which Putin could order a strike from the world's biggest nuclear arsenal, was approved by him on Tuesday.

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait pose another significant risk. China's military modernization, including its nuclear arsenal, reflects its ambitions to assert dominance in the region. A conflict over Taiwan could draw in the US and its allies, potentially escalating into a nuclear confrontation. Taiwan is a key player in the global semiconductor industry, with its companies producing the majority of the world's advanced chips. A conflict in Taiwan could disrupt global supply chains, creating economic turmoil that draws other nations into the fray.

The volatile Middle East, marked by Israel's nuclear ambiguity and Iran's nuclear aspirations, remains a hotspot. Axios reported that an Israeli operation on October 26, targeting Iran’s Parchin facility, destroyed advanced equipment critical for designing explosives necessary for nuclear weapons development. This action, carried out in response to a prior Iranian strike on Israel, dealt a significant blow to Iran’s ability to resume its nuclear weapons research.

How Could World War III Unfold?

A plausible scenario might begin with a localized conflict, such as a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine or a Chinese attack on Taiwan. A conflict over Taiwan could draw in regional players like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, who might act to counter Chinese aggression. Retaliatory measures by the US or NATO could trigger a chain reaction of alliances, drawing in countries like India and Pakistan in South Asia or Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. The use of tactical nuclear weapons in any of these conflicts could rapidly escalate to strategic exchanges, with catastrophic global consequences.

While the risks are high, opportunities for de-escalation exist. Renewing diplomatic efforts, such as negotiating arms control agreements or engaging in confidence-building measures, is critical. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, supported by over 70 nations, offers a framework for reducing nuclear threats, though nuclear-armed states have largely dismissed it

The possibility of World War III underscores the urgent need for international cooperation to address nuclear risks. Without proactive measures, the world faces an increasingly uncertain and dangerous future.