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The tone was set the moment Amos Hochstein concluded his talks in Beirut and delivered a carefully diplomatic press briefing, delicately outlining just how distant a resolution still seems. No sooner had his words settled than Israeli airstrikes resumed, and rockets were launched from Lebanon.
For those striving to remain Cartesian and keep emotions from clouding their reasoning, one thing is clear: a ceasefire remains little more than a mirage – for now. Behind Beirut’s puppet show, the strings are being pulled from the shadows by forces with entirely different priorities. The real decision-makers here are Israel and Iran.
Starting with Israel, there’s little incentive for Benjamin Netanyahu to end the conflict. Despite Hezbollah’s claims, its military continues to make steady progress. Israeli forces move freely in and out of the South – and not because they are constrained. Most importantly, why offer Joe Biden a parting gift now when, after January 20, the US carte blanche will be even more sweeping and unconditional?
As for Iran, they’re in no hurry either. The mullahs are no strangers to strategic blunders and think they are being clever by maintaining pressure through their proxies. After all, it’s the Lebanese who are dying, not the Iranians. For Tehran, there’s no problem. They, too, are waiting for Trump, hoping to trade the survival of their regime for Lebanon – or whatever remains of it.
Hezbollah no longer calls the shots. No one even knows where its MPs are. Its new leader had to cancel a speech that was supposed to coincide with Hochstein’s visit. The outcome of the talks didn’t quite match his narrative. That’s the problem with pre-recorded speeches: nothing beats the spontaneity of a live broadcast. But then again, circumstances and danger have their own rules.
What haven’t we heard about the details of the American plan to end the war, whether temporarily or not? As always, in Beirut, everyone claims to have the “real” secret document. There’s talk of American and French generals, Egyptian and Jordanian forces, Israeli freedom of action, and Western control over the ports and airport… In reality, no one knows for sure. One thing is certain: tonight, tomorrow, and in the days to come, only the Lebanese people will endure the crushing weight of anxiety and fear. Their voices are unheard. Let’s just wait for November 22 so we can feign celebration of independence!
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