- 13
- Nov.
- 2024
According to informed sources, the outgoing administration of United States President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming one share a similar view regarding the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
Both administrations see an opportunity to end the conflict and establish a new reality that would prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding and posing a threat to Israel. This could allow Lebanon to benefit domestically, laying the groundwork for state-building efforts and promoting calm and stability.
According to the information, US officials are convinced that Israel has achieved several key objectives in its war against Hezbollah. First, it has prevented the pro-Iranian faction from launching attacks on northern Israel and advancing into the Galilee, by dismantling all tunnels and military infrastructure along the Blue Line that Hezbollah intended to use for this purpose – a plan repeatedly highlighted by late Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Furthermore, Israel has eliminated most of Hezbollah’s leaders at various levels, who were responsible for political, military and security operations. Now, Israel is on the verge of implementing Resolution 1701, which would establish a buffer zone south of the Litani River, requiring Hezbollah to withdraw its heavy weaponry from the area and dismantle all military infrastructure there. This would then occur with the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL overseeing the process, following a comprehensive clearing of unexploded shells, rockets, mines and debris from the zone.
The information also mentions an agreement with the Russian side, under which Russian military police, alongside Syrian army forces, will be stationed at the Lebanese border to prevent the smuggling of weapons or ammunition to Hezbollah via Syria. This would be coupled with a Russian green light for Israel to carry out airstrikes in Syria targeting any Iranian attempts to supply Hezbollah, including strikes on Iranian military experts and logistical bases.
This agreement comes amid Iran’s persisting refusal to commit to stop rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities. Additionally, the deal with Russia is linked to the expansion of the existing security model at Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport – which has protected the airport from Israeli strikes – to ports along the Lebanese coast and official border crossings with Syria. The Lebanese Army will be tasked with effectively securing the land border with Syria.
This scenario is one that Hezbollah cannot accept, and in this context, the Lebanese government cannot risk involving the army in a confrontation with Hezbollah. US sources indicate that Washington has given Israel the green light to keep up military pressure on the pro-Iranian group. Hezbollah must either accept these terms, and have the Lebanese government implement them under US supervision, or Israel would seek to impose this scenario by force. In the latter case, Lebanon would be left to face the consequences of the war alone, with grave implications on its internal security situation.
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