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3. Palestinian and Shiite Population Relocations

It has been over a year since the conflict started in Gaza, yet the Biden administration has struggled to broker a lasting ceasefire. This challenge primarily stems from the entrenched positions and demands of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who insists on Hamas disarmament and the transfer of governance in Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, which would be responsible for overseeing weapons control.

Recent reports indicate that Netanyahu is pursuing two distinct population transfer strategies. The first involves relocating Palestinians from northern Gaza to the southern region to safeguard Israeli settlements and border areas. The second plan targets southern Lebanon, with the objective of moving the Shiite population from the South to northern and central Lebanon. This initiative includes a scorched-earth strategy to deter southern Shiite residents from returning to their original lands, thereby ensuring the security of settlements in northern Israel.

Will Netanyahu’s plan succeed, especially in light of reports that numerous Lebanese leaders have mentioned a potential Shiite migration towards Iraq, with registered numbers now surpassing seventy thousand? Institutions linked to the holy shrines in Iraq are reportedly welcoming Lebanese Shiite arrivals, facilitated by officials in the Najaf area.