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3. Where Did the Armed Palestinian Factions in Lebanon Go?

When the concept known as “support front” was first implemented, there was hardly a week that went by without some Palestinian militia claiming responsibility for rocket fire from Lebanon against Israel in support of Gaza. For the past few weeks, that has come to an end.

Hamas, Islamic Jihad, al-Aqsa Brigades... the entire Palestinian armed galaxy has suddenly ceased its activities from southern Lebanon. As the saying goes, "happiness lies in obscurity." In this case, these organizations must be relishing their happiness, given how discreet they have become.

In reality, a striking paradox stands out. The Lebanese have become refugees in their own country, paying the price for Iran’s strategy, while the Palestinian refugee camps remain untouched. Curious, isn’t it? These camps, havens of lawlessness, are overflowing with weapons; rocket launchers are comfortably holed up there, waiting for the storm to pass. A storm of iron and fire that consumes Lebanon before the eyes of its so-called "supportive brothers."

And what about the much-touted principle of solidarity? What happened to the supposed unity of fronts? It seems to have been cast aside. Promises only bind those who are foolish enough to believe them. The numerous Palestinian armed groups are undoubtedly waiting for another opportunity to “liberate” something, choosing to sit this one out. Too bad for the hollow slogans they've fed their followers. Now is the time for realism. There’s no sense in charging headfirst into the furnace. In a way, this stance seems logical. Others should take note. But, alas, they do not.

Worse still, Hamas not only feels indifferent to the war being waged in its name in Lebanon, but it’s also going solo. Delegations are flocking to Qatar to negotiate a separate ceasefire in Gaza and an agreement on hostages. Lebanon? Uh, never heard of it? Reports suggest these discussions are well underway.

The plan is to offer a little reward to the Biden administration, which has put in so much effort since October 7. This way, if Kamala Harris wins the upcoming US elections, both Israel and Hamas can credit her with a deal — however flimsy and temporary — on Gaza. Always good to keep two irons in the fire.

The second iron, unfortunately, is Lebanon. The situation here is quite different. Without wavering in their publicly proclaimed beliefs, the leaders of the "resistance" have pulled off at least one impressive achievement: convincing their already loyal audience that the Israelis are bogged down in the south and unable to invade the country. Yet behind the scenes, Hezbollah seems to have accepted what it had previously brushed aside — the strict enforcement of Resolution 1701 and the end of the so-called unity of fronts. Iran is playing it cool and, despite the fiery rhetoric meant for domestic consumption, hopes to avoid another Israeli attack.

Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, continues to strike at Hezbollah — its bases, its weapons, its funding, its leaders — and has no intention of stopping. He’s even considering expanding his ground operation. Up to the Awali River? Perhaps. But what would the countless Palestinian armed militias based in the camps do then? Launch rockets at Gaza? That would be quite relevant. But, well... that seems rather unlikely.