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3. Israel-US: Approaching Washington’s Presidential Transition

Expecting a permanent ceasefire in Gaza or Lebanon just days before the end of President Joe Biden’s term is overly optimistic, if not entirely unrealistic. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to offer a “gift” he withheld for over a year to a president on the brink of departure.

Naturally, Netanyahu will be eagerly watching the election results, with a clear preference for former President Donald Trump, with whom he shares strong ties from Trump’s previous tenure.

To clarify for readers who may not be deeply familiar with the intricacies of American politics, it’s important to emphasize that a victory for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wouldn’t disadvantage Israel. Both Republicans and Democrats seek Israel’s favor and that of pro-Israel lobbying groups in Washington. Consequently, neither party is likely to risk any setback in the political and diplomatic relationship with Israel.

President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, proudly affirmed this position throughout his lengthy political career. He has stated that if Israel did not exist, the US must find it, thereby ensuring its support and preservation. His solidarity visit to Tel Aviv just days after the events of October 7 underscored his commitment, as he offered unwavering support to Israel in its confrontation with “Hamas.”

Former President Donald Trump, for his part, has boasted about the robust support he provided to Israel during his administration (2017-2021). His accomplishments included recognizing Israel as a Jewish State, relocating the US embassy to Jerusalem and pressuring several Arab nations—such as Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain—to sign the Abraham Accords. Moreover, Trump sought to trivialize the Palestinian cause by framing it as merely an economic and livelihood issue. His proposal for a fragmented and unviable state, paired with a financial aid package, implies that the Palestinian struggle solely revolves around necessities like food and water. In reality, it’s a national liberation movement that has persisted for over 75 years.

For several months, the US administration has reiterated its position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, promoting the two-state solution. However, as the Israeli offensive on Gaza continues unabated for over a year, and with Washington unable to compel Tel Aviv to agree to a ceasefire, this political “mantra” appears increasingly disconnected from reality. This is particularly alarming given that the United States has provided Israel with all required military resources for its ongoing war of extermination against Gaza, disregarding the laws of war, human rights or the protection of civilians.

Despite the limited number of voices within the US Congress, notably led by Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders (a former presidential candidate), calls to halt or reduce military support to Tel Aviv have failed to sway the US administration’s steadfast position. This unyielding stance has resulted in over 42,000 martyrs in Gaza and nearly 3,000 in Lebanon to date.

The US-Israeli relationship is intricate and multifaceted. Despite recent opinion polls indicating that support for Palestinians among youth markedly exceeds support for Israel, this shift is unlikely to impact US foreign policy anytime soon. The longstanding backing for Israel has been established over decades, creating a deeply entrenched stance that makes significant alterations challenging.

Netanyahu’s newly articulated goal of redrawing the region’s map reflects a troubling sense of Israeli arrogance and nationalism. Yet, the path toward this ambition is fraught with challenges and is likely to result in further destruction and conflict.