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3. Displacement Crisis: The Stakes of the Government Plan and Prefabricated Housing

The government has outlined a plan to relocate those displaced by the ongoing war in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, whose homes have been destroyed. On Wednesday, a decision was made to build prefabricated houses to shelter part of the estimated 1.2 million displaced. What does this involve?

With the winter season drawing near and more people seeking refuge on the streets of Beirut, providing emergency shelter for these devastated populations has become a top priority for Lebanese authorities. Yet, this initiative is fraught with challenges—logistical, economic and social.

What Lies Behind This Solution?

In the current Lebanese context, prefabricated houses offer several advantages, explains Mona Harb, a professor of Urban Studies and Political Science at the American University of Beirut.

On one hand, she notes that “they can be installed quickly, which is crucial for addressing the urgent needs of the displaced.” Harb emphasizes that “the first shelters could be ready within a few weeks.” However, for this to occur, two conditions must be met: a swift release of funds and effective project organization, free from any interference. Past experiences have shown that reconstruction projects in Lebanon are often hampered by bureaucratic hurdles, political power struggles and funding issues.

Conversely, urban planning experts indicate that prefabricated houses typically have a lower value than conventional housing, a crucial factor in a country experiencing profound economic decline. According to caretaker Minister of Environment Nasser Yassin, the funding for this construction project would be sourced from friendly Arab donor countries. The overall cost would depend on several factors, including the number of units to be built, the types of materials used and the anticipated lifespan of these homes. Experts estimate that the total expenses could amount to hundreds of millions of dollars.

Moreover, the materials used for these prefabricated houses are often lighter, more flexible and can be adapted to various weather-related conditions.

Preliminary reports suggest that the government has chosen Turkey as the source for importing these prefabricated houses, largely due to its expertise and geographical proximity. Ankara, which has a well-developed industry in prefabricated construction, has been identified as a key partner for this project. For several years, Turkey has been exporting temporary infrastructure and modular solutions to various countries facing humanitarian emergencies.

What About the Locations?

Designed to be built in specific areas, particularly in Beirut and North Lebanon (according to a source close to the Ministry of Public Works), the prefabricated houses serve as a temporary solution. To this end, the government “may consider installing these units on state-owned land that is away from combat zones, while also addressing the constraints of available space and infrastructure,” Harb indicates.

She further explains that involving Solidere, the private company in charge of the reconstruction of downtown Beirut, could be an option, especially due to the vacant spaces at Biel, where a significant concentration of tents has been set up. It’s worth noting that since the intensification of clashes between Hezbollah and Israel, around one million people have been forced to leave their hometowns and villages. To tackle this wave of displacement, public schools have been converted to shelters, based on a decision by caretaker Minister of Education Abbas Halabi, to accommodate those affected.

Social Challenge

Although the number of displaced individuals requiring relocation depends on the extent of recent destruction, estimates indicate that tens of thousands may need shelter. The selection of regions for these housing units may be influenced by political and social considerations, primarily to prevent aggravating communal or demographic tensions. Given Lebanon's fragile sectarian balance, the country has always been sensitive to issues of internal migration. If these displaced individuals settle permanently in areas outside their original communities, it could disrupt the current demographic balance and trigger intercommunal tensions. This could also intensify economic disparities and social inequalities, especially if local communities perceive that the displaced individuals are receiving disproportionate assistance.

According to Mona Harb, “this is mainly a temporary solution, as a reconstruction project for the destroyed neighborhoods and villages will inevitably follow once the war ends.” She asserts that the displaced people would undoubtedly return to their homes, “especially considering that they are Lebanese citizens deeply attached to their lands and regions of origin.”

Confronted with a severe economic crisis and the deterioration of its public infrastructure, Lebanon is struggling to manage this sudden influx of vulnerable citizens. Although the government’s plan is seen as a necessary step to prevent a more serious humanitarian crisis, it is still mired in controversy.