- 19
- Sep.
- 2024
The New Warfare: A Digital Checkmate in the Age of Conflict
modified on 26 Sep. 2024 à 05:42 Read : 4 minute(s) A A A
Never in the history of modern warfare have we witnessed such an attack. On Tuesday, Israel simultaneously detonated thousands of pagers, killing 25 people, including two children, and injuring more than 3,000. This attack targeted Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria. Codenamed “Below the Belt,” the operation caused injuries primarily to the hip, groin, eyes, face, and hands. Hospitals in Beirut have been overwhelmed and are calling for blood donations. Many victims were holding and looking at the pagers when they exploded: a horrifying scene that’s hard to comprehend, reminiscent of a sci-fi movie or a Netflix series.
As people focused on treating the injured and burying the victims, the following day brought more chaos: thousands of walkie-talkies exploded simultaneously, resulting in injuries and fires engulfing homes.
Israel was reportedly behind both attacks, though it has not taken public credit but did release a video of Netanyahu whistling right after the attack. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate. US officials have reportedly confirmed that Israel tampered with the pagers, adding a detonating switch that could be triggered remotely and a small amount of explosive material. Several experts suggest that the explosions were likely caused by supply-chain interference. Small explosive devices may have been embedded in the pagers before their delivery to Hezbollah and then triggered remotely, possibly via a radio signal. The method used to detonate the walkie-talkies remains unclear. This incident also indicates a significant security breach within Hezbollah, as the pagers may have been equipped with tracking devices that mapped the group’s movements.
The pager and walkie-talkie attacks — more extensive and destructive than past attacks involving phones — indicate a new level of sophistication in Israeli operations against Hezbollah.
Many civilians were injured or killed in the attacks, which could potentially violate Articles 51(3) and 48 of Protocol I of the Geneva Convention. Article 51(3) mandates protection for civilians not participating in hostilities, while Article 48 requires parties to conflicts to distinguish between civilians and combatants, as well as between civilian objects and military objectives.
So far, Israel seems to have a formidable influence over international cybersecurity, possessing the ability to hack into any device, monitor communications, and conduct espionage. It can harness data and manipulate internet-connected devices, ushering in a new era of warfare.
This reminds me of the famous phrase from George Orwell’s book 1984: ”Big Brother Is Watching You.” The novel paints a dystopian future where technology controls every aspect of human life, stripping away individual freedom and privacy. This suggests that Hezbollah’s deterrence theory has fallen.
What options does Hezbollah have for self-protection if Israel has mapped its entire digital footprint? With mobile phones, smartphones, pagers, walkie-talkies, Wi-Fi routers, email accounts compromised, and AI tools tracking digital movements, the attacks aim to cripple Hezbollah’s communications and logistics. The question arises: should cutting off internet access be considered?
Could the Lebanese government consider drastic measures to protect Hezbollah and its infrastructure? In this context, an internet blackout might appear as a viable defensive tactic to thwart Israeli cyberattacks, especially during heightened tensions. However, such an action could have catastrophic consequences.
One of the most immediate effects of cutting off the internet would be a severe impact on Lebanon’s already fragile economy, leading to financial losses for the banking sector and money-wiring companies. It would also isolate communities, forcing communication to shift to analog methods.
An internet shutdown would hinder the flow of information, making it difficult for citizens to stay informed about developments. This could lead to panic and misinformation, worsening the situation. The impacts on the economy, social fabric, healthcare services, and overall security could far outweigh the perceived benefits.
If an internet blackout isn't feasible, how might Hezbollah respond? It seems that Israel is provoking Hezbollah to retaliate, with Netanyahu seemingly seeking war. Is Hezbollah prepared to act despite these losses? Retaliation is anticipated by many.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel’s focus has moved to the northern front as a “new phase” of the war is beginning.
Washington has communicated clearly to Israel its desire to avoid a full-scale war, and Iran has aligned with the US in urging restraint, particularly in the months leading up to the elections. Would Hezbollah still retaliate without a clear signal from Iran? This situation feels like a checkmate: it could either escalate into a major conflict, with Hezbollah potentially launching thousands of rockets instead of hundreds, or it could lead to disastrous outcomes for both sides. It could represent a new phase of conflict, potentially leading the US to support Israel as Netanyahu desires, in order to secure the northern front. Nasrallah’s upcoming speech may provide insights into whether Iran intends to fully back Hezbollah before negotiating a new nuclear deal with a new administration or whether it will continue to support its ally while engaging in negotiations with the US.
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