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Hamas has retracted. After making the question of a permanent ceasefire a condition for concluding any agreement with Israel, the Islamist group said on Sunday it was ready to negotiate the release of all Israeli hostages — about 120 — including soldiers, without such a provision. Although Tel Aviv's "official" reply is yet to be declared, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to respond on Sunday evening.
"No agreement should prevent Israel from resuming fighting until all the goals of the war are achieved," read a statement published on Sunday evening by Netanyahu's press office. Since the start of the war in Gaza on October 7, Israel's goals have been to eliminate Hamas from the strip and obtain the release of Israeli hostages. To this "requirement," two others have been added, as reported in the statement. "The agreement must prohibit the transfer of weapons to Hamas via the Gaza-Egypt border. It should also not allow the return of fighters to the northern strip." Is Netanyahu seeking to further complicate the situation in response to Hamas' "unprecedented" retraction?
In addition to the visit of Israeli emissaries to Qatar, which is expected to take place in the coming days to "continue negotiations," the Israeli Prime Minister is also set to address the US Congress on July 24. "Betting more than ever on the return of former US President Donald Trump to the White House, Benjamin Netanyahu does not intend to make any concessions to the outgoing administration, at least not before the upcoming US elections in November," explains Fadi Assaf, an expert in international relations and co-founder of Middle East Strategic. "He believes that the time for grand bargains has not yet come and that he must seize the opportunity to push further on the hostage issue."
With the implicit support of Arab countries and a large portion of Israelis (despite a significant popular movement in Tel Aviv demanding the hostages' release as a priority), Netanyahu hopes that his upcoming intervention in Washington "will bolster his strategic choices, particularly his war objectives, which he insists on achieving at all costs, regardless of a potential 'deal' with tactical implications," Assaf explains.
A Three-Step Plan
Still under discussion, the plan in question would unfold in three main stages, as presented by Hamas: the entry into Gaza of 400 humanitarian aid trucks per day, the withdrawal of the Israeli Army from the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah crossing point, and finally, its complete withdrawal from Palestinian territory. "This is an ambitious and precarious plan given an interlocutor, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is still determined to continue his military campaign," Assaf notes.
Nevertheless, regional and international pressures are intensifying to reach an agreement between the parties involved. Heavily mobilized, "Qatar and Egypt are pressuring Hamas, each using the levers at their disposal, for the group to show flexibility in the current context," hence the decision to retract. However, "Hamas has other calculations, and accepting to negotiate on the hostages without a permanent ceasefire would not be 'free,'" Assaf believes. According to him, these calculations "concern Hamas' relations with its regional allies, particularly Hezbollah," whose Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, discussed this issue with a Hamas delegation led by Khalil el-Hayyah on Friday.
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