- 05
- July
- 2024
UK: Keir Starmer Elected Prime Minister, Conservatives Crushed
modified on 19 Aug. 2024 à 09:26 Read : 5 minute(s) A A A
The annihilation of the Conservative Party and the overwhelming victory of the Labour Party have indeed taken place. As expected, Sir Keir Starmer was appointed British Prime Minister by King Charles III. In these times of political alternation, the British people hope to regain faith in change after fourteen years of Conservative government. So, how should one interpret such results? How can one explain the electoral behaviors that led to this rout? What will Starmer’s first hundred days in power look like?
With the results of two constituencies not yet finalized, the new parliamentary composition of Westminster is as follows: 412 seats for Labour, 121 for the Conservatives, 71 for the Liberal Democrats, 9 for the Scottish National Party (SNP), 4 for the Greens, 4 for Reform UK, and others were distributed among various groups.
Out of a total of 648 constituencies with official results, Labour has a majority of 86 MPs, marking the second-largest Labour parliamentary majority since Tony Blair in 1997. As for the Tories, they recorded their worst result ever and the smallest number of parliamentary seats since the party's inception. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats emerged victorious from this election, having multiplied their number of seats sevenfold, achieving their best score in over a hundred years. Conversely, the SNP suffered a crushing defeat, reducing their number of seats by four. Finally, Reform UK, a dissident party from the far-right wing of the Conservative Party led by Nigel Farage, though only winning four seats, managed to attract a large number of Conservative votes, coming in second place in 98 constituencies.
However, this result should not be seen as an unconditional endorsement of all the Labour Party’s proposals. The tumultuous and fluctuating political dynamics reflect a versatile electorate determined, above all, to sanction the incumbent governments in each region of Great Britain. Everywhere, voters express their disapproval of existing governments — Conservative at Westminster, SNP in Scotland, or Labour in Wales — all recording significant declines in support. It is undoubtedly a vote of sanction.
The Labour victory rests on only 35% of the vote, a rise of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2019, and five points less than under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017. How can this be explained, especially since Labour suffered its greatest defeat in 2019? Perhaps through the diversity of parties and the more variable distribution of votes. Also, the considerable decrease in support from the Muslim community — normally attributed to them — due to Starmer’s stance on Gaza. In any case, in England, Labour’s share of the vote remains unchanged, while in Wales, it decreased by four points, only increasing overall due to strong progress in Scotland, where it grew by more than 17 points.
It is rather the collapse of the Conservatives and the rise of Reform UK that, in many cases, allowed Labour to prevail in regions where they had never performed well in the past. Indeed, it is very likely that Reform UK capitalized on the disappointment of the Conservatives and took votes normally attributed to the outgoing Prime Minister. This election offered the British an opportunity to express their dismay at the country’s management after fourteen years of Conservative government at Downing Street.
The British public thus indicated to Rishi Sunak that, electorally speaking, he is the worst Tory leader in history. The party could only mobilize 22% of the electorate, recording the largest drop in vote share ever observed compared to Boris Johnson’s victory in 2019. So far, 11 ministers have lost their seats — the previous record being seven in 1997 — with notable figures such as Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss, known for her tumultuous 44-day tenure, also lost to Labour in her constituency by about 650 votes.
The first hundred days of Sir Keir Starmer at Downing Street promise to be extremely busy. After the official announcement of his appointment as Prime Minister at Buckingham Palace on July 5, Starmer will need to focus on forming a new government in the name of His Majesty the King. He is likely to rely on his shadow cabinet to form the official cabinet.
On July 9, the new Prime Minister will attend an international NATO summit in Washington with US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The new executive could use these first days to repeal certain legislations of the previous Conservative parliament, notably the highly controversial "Rwanda Bill." It is conceivable, though unlikely, that Starmer and the potential Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, will call for an emergency budget to introduce new economic reforms and adjust the level of taxation.
On July 17, Starmer will also need to focus on drafting the King’s annual speech for the official opening ceremony of Westminster, where His Majesty will outline the government’s priorities. On July 18, Sir Keir Starmer will participate in the European Political Community summit in Oxfordshire, UK. Finally, after the summer parliamentary recess, the budget will be introduced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in October, formalizing certain economic and financial reforms, such as tax increases.
The recent election marks a decisive turning point in the political history of the United Kingdom. Sir Keir Starmer is now stepping into Downing Street, ending fourteen years of Conservative dominance. This overwhelming Labour victory, with the largest parliamentary majority since Tony Blair in 1997, symbolizes a profound desire for change within the British electorate. The results reflect an unequivocal rejection of Conservative policies and a collective aspiration for political and economic renewal.
The transition will not be without challenges, however, as Starmer inherits a country marked by internal divisions and multiple crises. The early days of his tenure will be crucial in defining the direction of his government and establishing confidence in his ability to deliver effective and sustainable solutions. Expectations are immense, both nationally and internationally, with eyes turned towards the new Prime Minister and his approach to global issues. This election is far more than a simple change of guard; it represents a historic opportunity to redefine national priorities and set the UK back on a path of progress and stability. Starmer and his team now stand at a crossroads, with the responsibility to turn the hopes of millions of Britons into tangible realities.
Ali A. Hamadé
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