- 21
- June
- 2024
UK’s Early Elections: Are the Conservatives Facing Annihilation?
modified on 02 July 2024 à 14:58 Read : 6 minute(s) A A A
With just 15 days until the snap general elections in the United Kingdom, the ruling Conservative Party has never been this weakened. The party is now fighting for its survival. Alarming polls predict not only a landslide victory for the opposition Labour Party but also the implosion of the Conservatives, who are projected to secure an embarrassingly low number of seats—their lowest since the party's inception.
According to the most pessimistic forecasts, the right-leaning Daily Telegraph newspaper predicts just 53 seats for the Conservatives compared to 516 for Labour. While other independent polling institutes do not confirm such figures, they still indicate a strong anti-Conservative trend in the UK after 14 years of Conservative rule. Can we affirm with certainty that the opposition Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will emerge victorious and be appointed Prime Minister on July 5? Are the Conservatives truly on the brink of annihilation?
It's extremely likely, if not almost certain, that the Labour opposition will emerge from these elections with a resounding victory, securing a commanding supermajority in the new Parliament. King Charles III is expected to appoint Sir Keir Starmer as the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on the morning of July 5. Labour have to secure an absolute majority of 326 seats, supported by consistent polling figures—excluding the outlier from the Daily Telegraph—which predict the Conservatives will likely secure between 90 to 150 seats at best. There is no indication of a Conservative victory on the horizon.
According to a survey conducted by the British channel Sky News, the Conservatives are predicted to secure 108 seats, while Labour is projected to win 425 seats, surpassing even Tony Blair's largest majority in 1997. According to the same source, in the best-case scenario, the Conservatives would secure 150 seats. But what justifies this highly humiliating outcome?
The highly probable crushing defeat in the upcoming early general elections on July 4 can be justified in several ways. One primary reason is the Conservative government's track record over the past 14 years, marked by recurring scandals and the tumultuous tenure of Liz Truss. In addition, successive global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine compound the situation. While this aspect largely explains an impending electoral defeat, it does not encompass all the factors that have contributed to the erosion of public trust in the Conservative Party.
Another explanation could be a miscalculation in the Prime Minister’s adopted electoral strategy in calling for early elections. It was widely believed that Rishi Sunak's decision was based on the expectation that substantial economic improvements introduced could change the facts. Earlier this week, the Bank of England announced that annual inflation had reached the targeted 2%, originally projected for late 2025. Furthermore, despite unchanged interest rates, there is anticipation of a decrease in the coming months, possibly even weeks. Lastly, Sunak pinned hopes on the potential adoption of the “Rwanda Bill” after months of procrastination, aimed at deporting all illegal immigrants to the African country as a deterrent.
The miscalculation also encompasses the decision to run a lengthy six-week election campaign, instead of opting for the minimum duration stipulated by the Constitution of just 25 days.
On May 22, when the Prime Minister made the shocking announcement calling for early general elections, some Conservative MPs questioned the decision to lead a prolonged campaign.
During an interview with The Times of London, a particular MP estimated that Sunak's decision endangered the party and diminished any chance of reversing the trend. He also highlighted that former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, revered as an icon of the Conservative Party and a symbol of its past glory, ran election campaigns lasting no more than three to four weeks during each of the three successive elections she won. To this exceptional political strategist, this decision appeared to be the most ingenious. Both history and current events have since proved it right.
With the Conservatives trailing Labour in the polls for months, Sunak had clearly hoped that a lengthy campaign would give his party more time to recover and narrow the gap between both parties. However, the opposite seems to have occurred. As the campaign progresses, with just two weeks until election day, polls indicate increasingly significant losses for the Conservatives.
In the April local municipal elections, which saw the Conservatives defeated, Sky News initially projected an encouraging outcome for the caretaker government ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. The British channel anticipated a narrow majority for the Labour Party in Westminster, with the Conservatives closely behind.
Moreover, just 15 days ago, the Daily Mail published a new poll endorsed by The Daily Telegraph and The Times of London, showing the Conservatives trailing Labour by only 12 points. This sharply contrasted with all other polls indicating a gap of at least 20 points. In light of these encouraging poll results, Sunak clearly sought to capitalize on a favorable tide for his party, attempting to reverse the trend, yet without significant success. He also banked on Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer's lack of charisma and his unclear electoral program. Sunak thus proposed several successive televised debates that underscored Labour's lack of real convictions and clear plan.
However, two unexpected factors have weakened Sunak's position. First, his scandalous departure from the Normandy Landings commemorations portrayed him as leader lacking credibility on the international stage. The second and most striking factor is the significant surge in the polls for Reform UK, a breakaway party from the far-right wing of the Conservative Party, led by Nigel Farage, which is polling at 12%. A considerable portion of these votes would normally be attributed to the Conservatives.
Therefore, is it too little, too late for the Tories? The answer seems henceforth clear: yes.
The pressing question today is no longer whether the Conservatives will lose the upcoming July 4 general elections, but rather if the party is truly on the brink of annihilation. If annihilation is literally defined as the total destruction of something, completely wiping it out from existence, the polls suggest that the Conservatives may be heading in that direction. Given the near-impossibility of changing the course of the upcoming elections, the best-case scenario for the Conservatives would be to secure as many seats as possible just to narrow the gap and mitigate an imminent humiliation.
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