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- Will Hezbollah Succeed in Disrupting Lebanese-Cypriot Relations?
The self-proclaimed decision-maker on matters of war and peace in Lebanon, Hezbollah strives to increase the country’s isolation from the rest of the world. Today, the focal point is Cyprus, located approximately 200 km from Lebanon, whose relations with the latter are at risk of significant deterioration, depending on the mood and interests of Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, and his Iranian protector.
“We consider ourselves at war with Cyprus if it allows Israel to use its airports and military bases to target Lebanon,” he warned in a televised speech on Wednesday evening. This threat had immediate repercussions: On Thursday morning, Lebanese citizens were alarmed by an announcement regarding the suspension of Cypriot visa services until further notice.
A startling report, swiftly refuted first by Parliament's Vice-President Elias Bou Saab, then by a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs , and finally confirmed by the Cypriot Embassy in Beirut. "The consulate will not process any visa or legalization requests on June 20, 2024. Passports and legalizations can be collected by presenting the receipt issued by the consulate during the visa application," stated the Nicosia embassy on X.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this suspension of services is purely administrative, and the embassy will resume normal operations starting Friday. A simple coincidence or a veiled Cypriot response?
The situation has grown increasingly complex recently between the “Resistance” axis and Cyprus. "Hezbollah has surely become at the forefront of this confrontation," explains Fadi Assaf, co-founder of Middle East Strategic Perspectives. According to him, the clash seemed inevitable after Cyprus aligned itself with the Arab-Israeli camp, which previously had strained relations. The quick partnership forged between the two countries has turned Cyprus into "one of the most pro-Israel European Union countries," Assaf points out.
He believes that Nicosia tightly monitors the presence of Hezbollah-linked elements deemed suspicious on its territory, and has been steadily expanding its military and security cooperation – including intelligence exchanges – with Israel in both bilateral and multilateral contexts. He suggests that the tipping point was likely the series of Israeli military exercises in Cyprus, especially in the Cypriot mountains, which are similar to Lebanon's landscape.
From the perspective of Beirut’s southern suburbs (Hezbollah’s stronghold), the island is now at the heart of an anti-Moumanaa axis and is upholding one of the most pro-Israeli policies within the EU. In the current geopolitical and military landscape, "Hezbollah's Secretary-General is taking a proactive stance, issuing direct threats against Cyprus, aiming to use his famous 'deterrence strategy' with regard to Nicosia, potentially escalating into a new front involving (as usual) all of Lebanon," explains Fadi Assaf. It's important to note that Cyprus is a neighboring country, with which Lebanon has several intricate issues to address, including maritime borders and migratory flows.
Therefore, the main victims of this incident would be the Lebanese state and its citizens, who have a growing economic presence in Cyprus.
Historical relationships
History says it all. For a long time, Cyprus has been a key transit point and business hub for the Lebanese population. It is worth noting that after 1974, Nicosia was among the first cities to welcome Lebanese expatriates, who significantly contributed to the country’s economic recovery.
The number of brokerage firms, real estate agencies and Lebanese businesses operating there has steadily increased over the years. "We cannot imagine the potential consequences of a conflict between the two countries at this level. We have much at stake, especially since the economic crisis in Beirut has driven a substantial number of Lebanese to flee to Cyprus for security issues and to safeguard their future," stated the CEO of a real estate agency to This is Beirut. "The amount of Lebanese investment in Nicosia, and their profound interest in the island's real estate market, highlight the critical need to avoid any further instability that could jeopardize the safety of Lebanese residents in this neighboring country," he emphasized.
Indeed, the Lebanese population has always turned to Cyprus, especially during periods of security and economic instability in their home country. There was even a time when Lebanese nationals did not need visas to travel to the island, as they could obtain them upon arrival.
The Cypriot government's efficient visa and residency permit processes, along with cultural and geographical proximity, have established the island of Aphrodite as the top destination for Lebanese nationals. Cyprus serves as a hub for tourism, business trips, family summer retreats, shopping and interfaith weddings. Recently, Cyprus has also attracted the attention of Lebanese educational institutions: In 2023, the American University of Beirut (AUB) established a branch there, AUB Mediterraneo.
From a social perspective and among the Cypriot population, who view the Lebanese people favorably, there is concern about a potential "shift in attitude following Hassan Nasrallah's aggressive speech against their country, especially if the government fails to respond effectively to dispel any misunderstandings," Assaf notes.
Official reactions
In response to Hezbollah's Secretary-General's threat, Cypriot President Nikos Chrisodoulides replied diplomatically. "I would like to emphasize that the Republic of Cyprus is not involved in any way in this conflict. Cyprus is part of the solution, not part of the problem," he asserted firmly.
On Thursday, Nicosia’s government affirmed that it will not allow any nation to conduct military operations from its territory. In response, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly responded: "We would like to emphasize that Lebanon and Cyprus have longstanding relations marked by diplomatic cooperation. Regular and ongoing communication and consultations continue on matters of mutual interest." Will diplomacy prevail?
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