©(JOEL SAGET / AFP)
Absolute or relative majority? Government coalition or institutional deadlock? Who will be Prime Minister? In France, suspense hangs over the consequences of the parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7, although some are already putting forward their views on the various scenarios.
This is the clearest hypothesis from an institutional point of view: on the evening of the second round, one of the three blocs—Rassemblement National (RN, extreme right), the left or the presidential camp—obtains an absolute majority with at least 289 seats in the National Assembly.
A period of cohabitation could then begin. In the event of success, the far-right party intends to propose Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister, without calling for the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron.
For the presidential camp, outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal seems best placed to remain in office, but Macron has not confirmed this hypothesis, advocating the enlargement of the central bloc.
On the left, the equation is more complex. The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) has decided neither the name nor the method of appointing its potential Prime Minister, a role taken on in 2022 by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is now irritating many of his allies.
The latter's La France insoumise (LFI) party is arguing for a designation by the majority group within this alliance, while the boss of the Socialists is advocating “a vote” by the newly elected deputies, insoumis, socialists, ecologists and communists.
Will Macron, who is constitutionally responsible for appointing the future Prime Minister, have his say? “In theory, he is free to choose whomever he likes. But experience suggests that he will choose the name put forward by the majority party,” explains public law professor Anne Levade.
The calculations become more complicated if, as has been the case since 2022, no political force obtains an absolute majority.
Bardella made it clear on Tuesday evening on France 2 that he would “refuse to be appointed” Prime Minister without an absolute majority in the Assembly.
“If there is a relative majority, the Prime Minister cannot act,” he had said earlier.
Such a government is permanently threatened by a motion of censure from the opposition, which could force the next prime minister to enter into agreements to govern.
This was Macron's stated aim when he spoke of a “federation of projects,” a phrase he drew to illustrate the executive's change of method.
Hitherto rather closed to the hypothesis of a coalition, he is now clearly opening up to it, leaving 67 constituencies without investing a candidate in the name of the “Republican arc.” “It's not a case of 'love me, follow me,' it's the desire to build consensus, to weave compromises,” he explained.
In the event of a relative majority for the left-wing alliance or the RN, the situation could be even more complicated. “The hypothesis of a Prime Minister with strong political allegiances to one side or the other seems the least likely, as he or she would have difficulty securing a clear majority,” points out Ms. Levade.
As a result, “anything is conceivable,” even “the option of a technical or national unity Prime Minister, if the President considers this likely to create an agreement to govern.”
With three potentially irreconcilable blocs, the risk of an institutional deadlock, with no Prime Minister able to secure a majority, is clearly on the table.
“If the RN has a relative majority, how do we govern?” asks an official in the presidential camp. For someone close to the President, this hypothesis “will force people to take responsibility, to make a government agreement.”
But could we imagine a grand coalition capable of securing a majority against the RN? Several Macronist sources are thinking about it, with the hope of rallying the Republican right and part of the left, at least some Socialists.
“A lot will depend on the balance of the New Popular Front” in the Assembly, according to Ms. Levade. “Each of the players will have the responsibility of deciding whether the country becomes ungovernable or whether an agreement is possible.”
Antoine Maignan, with AFP
Absolute Majority
This is the clearest hypothesis from an institutional point of view: on the evening of the second round, one of the three blocs—Rassemblement National (RN, extreme right), the left or the presidential camp—obtains an absolute majority with at least 289 seats in the National Assembly.
A period of cohabitation could then begin. In the event of success, the far-right party intends to propose Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister, without calling for the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron.
For the presidential camp, outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal seems best placed to remain in office, but Macron has not confirmed this hypothesis, advocating the enlargement of the central bloc.
On the left, the equation is more complex. The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) has decided neither the name nor the method of appointing its potential Prime Minister, a role taken on in 2022 by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is now irritating many of his allies.
The latter's La France insoumise (LFI) party is arguing for a designation by the majority group within this alliance, while the boss of the Socialists is advocating “a vote” by the newly elected deputies, insoumis, socialists, ecologists and communists.
Will Macron, who is constitutionally responsible for appointing the future Prime Minister, have his say? “In theory, he is free to choose whomever he likes. But experience suggests that he will choose the name put forward by the majority party,” explains public law professor Anne Levade.
Relative Majority
The calculations become more complicated if, as has been the case since 2022, no political force obtains an absolute majority.
Bardella made it clear on Tuesday evening on France 2 that he would “refuse to be appointed” Prime Minister without an absolute majority in the Assembly.
“If there is a relative majority, the Prime Minister cannot act,” he had said earlier.
Such a government is permanently threatened by a motion of censure from the opposition, which could force the next prime minister to enter into agreements to govern.
This was Macron's stated aim when he spoke of a “federation of projects,” a phrase he drew to illustrate the executive's change of method.
Hitherto rather closed to the hypothesis of a coalition, he is now clearly opening up to it, leaving 67 constituencies without investing a candidate in the name of the “Republican arc.” “It's not a case of 'love me, follow me,' it's the desire to build consensus, to weave compromises,” he explained.
In the event of a relative majority for the left-wing alliance or the RN, the situation could be even more complicated. “The hypothesis of a Prime Minister with strong political allegiances to one side or the other seems the least likely, as he or she would have difficulty securing a clear majority,” points out Ms. Levade.
As a result, “anything is conceivable,” even “the option of a technical or national unity Prime Minister, if the President considers this likely to create an agreement to govern.”
Blockage or Coalition?
With three potentially irreconcilable blocs, the risk of an institutional deadlock, with no Prime Minister able to secure a majority, is clearly on the table.
“If the RN has a relative majority, how do we govern?” asks an official in the presidential camp. For someone close to the President, this hypothesis “will force people to take responsibility, to make a government agreement.”
But could we imagine a grand coalition capable of securing a majority against the RN? Several Macronist sources are thinking about it, with the hope of rallying the Republican right and part of the left, at least some Socialists.
“A lot will depend on the balance of the New Popular Front” in the Assembly, according to Ms. Levade. “Each of the players will have the responsibility of deciding whether the country becomes ungovernable or whether an agreement is possible.”
Antoine Maignan, with AFP
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