- 10
- June
- 2024
A shockwave, a perilous and risky bet, set against the backdrop of the looming 2027 presidential election... Last night, to widespread astonishment, President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the French National Assembly following the far-right's fulgurant victory in the European elections. Macron’s extremely daring move, aimed at shaking up the status quo, triggered a true political seism. He is somehow risking everything at a time during which both France and the European Union (EU) are navigating through intense turbulence.
President Macron initiated a two-step maneuver aimed at halting the rise of the Rassemblement National (RN, or National Gathering) and most importantly, preventing its leader Marine Le Pen from reaching the Élysée Palace. By convening the French population for early legislative elections, swiftly organized within a remarkably short timeframe of just three weeks to one month (covering both the initial and subsequent round), he probably hopes to trigger a political shockwave. This move is intended to urgently catalyze the rapid emergence of a new broad republican coalition, capable of delivering an electoral defeat to the RN. If it is successful, it would significantly halt the relentless momentum of the far-right, which threatens to culminate in a victory for Le Pen in the 2027 presidential election.
If this hypothetical political “resurgence” aimed at thwarting the RN proves unattainable, the far-right would be compelled to form a new government, amidst a (challenging) cohabitation between the Élysée Palace and Matignon. This is precisely where President Macron's second phase of maneuvering would come into play. Power wears thin, it even corrupts, and the reality of managing public affairs during a crisis could, with a very high likelihood, unveil all the weaknesses, flaws and perhaps even the ruling team’s incompetence. Such revelations could seriously compromise what seemed to be an inevitable victory for Le Pen in the 2027 presidential race.
The grave and perilous risk undertaken by the Élysée’s President is the potential for the RN to prove its mettle, showcasing political maturity by tempering certain positions, and succeeding in governance where the previous majority stumbled. The looming scenario persists, despite President Macron and the new opposition's concerted efforts to thwart its progress. The RN leaders declare themselves ready to assume power. In that event, the path to the Élysée would be wide open for Marine Le Pen. Will this perspective drive French voters to block the RN as early as June 30? Yet, it hinges on whether this very scenario serves as a shockwave for parties able to present a unified and potent front against Le Pen's rise.
President Macron's hazardous move becomes even riskier against the backdrop of a widespread surge of the far-right across many European Union countries. In a tumultuous setting marked by chaotic mass immigration, crawling insecurity, terrorist threats with sectarian anti-Western connotations, and particularly the potential extension of the war in Ukraine, the Old Continent may be facing a profound existential crisis. This would undoubtedly necessitate making significant and reaffirming essential decisions in terms of societal values, grounded in respecting human rights and rejecting any totalitarian temptation contrary to the Western society's bedrocks. Is the RN truly ready to confront such a challenge? Has President Macron set a trap for the far-right in this regard? Today, it falls upon French voters to take swift and drastic action.
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