- 26
- May
- 2024
UK General Elections: Risky Move or Strategic Masterstroke?
modified on 09 June 2024 à 07:05 Read : 6 minute(s) A A A
It’s a bombshell! British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak surprised everyone by announcing that UK general elections will be held on July 4, moving them up several months from the original deadline of January 2025.
This unexpected decision has sent shockwaves through government and parliamentary circles, where it was widely believed that Sunak would ask King Charles III to dissolve the Parliament between next October and November.
What is really behind this bold move? Is it a risky gamble or a strategic masterstroke? This question is all the more pertinent given that the Labour opposition currently enjoys a lead of over 20 points in the polls.
Let us recall that the Conservative Party, which came to power in 2010 under David Cameron, has experienced both unparalleled glory and a dramatic fall in public opinion. David Cameron’s resounding victory in 2010, after 13 years of Labour government under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, was followed by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s success in leading the Brexit campaign in 2016 and winning, in 2019, the largest Conservative majority in Parliament since the Thatcher era.
However, subsequent dramatic falls were marked by political chaos and instability. Theresa May, appointed in 2016, could only secure a relative majority in Westminster in 2017. Direct and indirect consequences of Brexit, repeated scandals involving Boris Johnson—most notably the Partygate scandal—and Liz Truss’s disastrous governance, which only lasted 44 days, further compounded the situation.
Moreover, the recent global context has only exacerbated these issues: economic problems due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have intensified the struggles.
Thus, the electorate, as it is often the case in most democracies, focuses more on failures and tends to blame the incumbent government for all the woes of the UK, whether it is responsible for them or not. Therefore, Sunak finds himself in the wrong place at the wrong time, although his record since coming to power is not as disastrous as some claim. Quite the opposite!
Today, the decision to call snap general elections in the UK has surprised many ministers and parliamentarians in the country’s high political spheres. In October 2022, upon taking office, Sunak made five key promises for his governance: to reduce inflation, ensure economic growth, cut public debt, reduce National Health Service (NHS) waiting lists and end illegal immigration.
Despite numerous projections indicating that some of these issues might see improvement by next fall—notably waiting lists, inflation and immigration—Sunak has opted to take the risk of early elections. So, what factors have driven the Prime Minister to make this surprise decision?
The most obvious hypothesis is that Sunak wants to focus his election campaign on economy. Since he took office, annual inflation has dropped from 11.1% in October of 2022 to 2.3% in May of 2024, beating the initial target of 2% by the end of 2025. As for interest rates, they are set to fall in the coming months. Additionally, a responsible yet significant tax cut has recently been implemented, averaging a reduction of £900. Debt of GDP, though still significant, is on a gradual decline: from 102% in 2022 (when Sunak took office) to 97% in 2024, with projections of further reductions. By doing so, Sunak aims to play the economic card, especially since, according to YouGov polls, it is the top concern for British voters.
Sunak is also counting on the element of surprise to unsettle his opponents; first and foremost, the Labour opposition, which is leading in all the polls. The Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, did not expect early elections and will have to hastily draft its election program, which is already marked by significant internal disagreements. The most notable points of contention concern foreign policy, particularly the approach to Israel in its war in Gaza, the considerable but almost impossible funding of ecological promises, as well as tax promises.
Sunak hopes that the lack of time and the element of surprise will create dissension within the Labour Party, provoking a fratricidal war similar to the one the Conservatives have been experiencing for several years. He also hopes to capitalize on the Labour leader’s lack of charisma, which could be a weakness in televised debates.
Next, Sunak wants to bet on the element of surprise against Reform UK, a far-right party derived from the right wing of the Conservative Party and led by Nigel Farage, which was polling at 12% in YouGov surveys. Reform UK will not have time to organize and run an effective campaign. In fact, Farage has already announced that his party will not participate in the general elections, which works in Sunak’s favor, as he could potentially reclaim a large portion of these votes.
Finally, Sunak is playing it safe by preferring early elections out of fear that things could deteriorate in certain areas. His economic success is a significant argument against the Labour Party, which has historically been weak on the economy during election campaigns. Sunak fears that this issue might not remain the top concern for voters, which could cause him to fall further in the polls. Plus, he does not want to risk a failure of the immigration law concerning Rwanda and the first flight to Kigali (see article dated 05-06-2024). Additionally, projections made in early May by British television channel Sky News assert that Labour would only achieve a relative majority in the next general elections. Sunak clings to this type of projection and will try, as much as possible, to turn the situation around to gain a majority himself, even if it is only a relative one.
While many observers believe that calling early general elections is a very risky gamble for Sunak, he hopes, despite the slim chances, to turn the tables and make it a strategic masterstroke.
Faced with numerous inherited problems and never-ending unpopularity, Sunak is trying to improve his chances of winning the next elections, even partially.
Despite internal dissensions within his party, this technocrat has managed to restore a certain stability in the UK and initiated favorable economic change.
He now must demonstrate, in the next month and a half, that Labour is not a viable and credible option, considering they lack real convictions.
The reality is that the opposition capitalizes on Tory failures without proposing a clear and precise alternative plan. Unity around Sunak, although difficult to guarantee, seems essential to highlight the current weaknesses of Labour.
But is it too little, too late? Only time will tell.
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