©(Photo by Gavriil GRIGOROV / POOL / AFP)
Putin's Sunday defense shake-up, which saw the ouster of long-serving defense minister Sergei Shoigu, appears designed to facilitate Russia's transition to a war economy.
Vladimir Putin's nomination of top economic official Andrei Belousov as defense minister is a sign of the importance the Russian leader places on the war economy in what he expects will be a long conflict against Ukraine, analysts say.
It is unclear if outgoing defense minister Sergei Shoigu's move to head the national security council is a demotion, while the future of its previous chief Nikolai Patrushev, a shadowy but powerful figure and an ardent hawk, is also murky.
Andrei Belousov has since 2020 been deputy prime minister in charge of the economy. Like his immediate predecessors as defense minister he has no background in the military but also no past in the Russian security services.
His priority at a time when Russia is planning to ramp up the defense budget to account for some 30 percent of government spending will be to fine tune procurement and boost the domestic defense industry to win success on the battlefield.
In an unusual late-night briefing to explain a decision that initially stunned many observers, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had chosen Belousov to ensure the defense ministry was open to "innovation".
"Putin's goal is to enhance arms production effectiveness and optimally meet military needs," wrote Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik consultancy. "In this context, Belousov is a logical choice."
Analysts said that the appointment indicates that the Kremlin is preparing Russia for a years-long war against Ukraine where the balance in weapons supplies and production may determine who emerges triumphant.
"The main takeaway is that Vladimir Putin is hunkering down for a long confrontation with the West," said Noble.
Shoigu, a prominent figure in the Russian government even in the 1990s before Putin rose to power, was always seen as a comrade of the president.
Shoigu's reputation suffered after the diatribes against him by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and the arrest of deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of taking bribes.
But Shoigu has not been removed from the elite, with Putin nominating him as head of the national security council.
There are doubts over the future importance of the council, whose deputy chief is former president Dmitry Medvedev now best known for broadsides on social media rather than political influence.
"This appointment also indicates that the actual significance of the security council in the hierarchy may not be as great as observers typically assume," Stanovaya said.
With Belousov an economist with no military experience, the decision further distances the defense ministry from battlefield decision making and reinforces the power of the military general staff.
The future of Russia's chief of staff General Valery Gerasimov has been in doubt for months after he disappeared from public view but he remains in his post after the reshuffle.
Stuart Williams, with AFP
Vladimir Putin's nomination of top economic official Andrei Belousov as defense minister is a sign of the importance the Russian leader places on the war economy in what he expects will be a long conflict against Ukraine, analysts say.
It is unclear if outgoing defense minister Sergei Shoigu's move to head the national security council is a demotion, while the future of its previous chief Nikolai Patrushev, a shadowy but powerful figure and an ardent hawk, is also murky.
Why Belousov?
Andrei Belousov has since 2020 been deputy prime minister in charge of the economy. Like his immediate predecessors as defense minister he has no background in the military but also no past in the Russian security services.
His priority at a time when Russia is planning to ramp up the defense budget to account for some 30 percent of government spending will be to fine tune procurement and boost the domestic defense industry to win success on the battlefield.
In an unusual late-night briefing to explain a decision that initially stunned many observers, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had chosen Belousov to ensure the defense ministry was open to "innovation".
"Putin's goal is to enhance arms production effectiveness and optimally meet military needs," wrote Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik consultancy. "In this context, Belousov is a logical choice."
Analysts said that the appointment indicates that the Kremlin is preparing Russia for a years-long war against Ukraine where the balance in weapons supplies and production may determine who emerges triumphant.
"The main takeaway is that Vladimir Putin is hunkering down for a long confrontation with the West," said Noble.
The fall of Shoigu?
Shoigu, a prominent figure in the Russian government even in the 1990s before Putin rose to power, was always seen as a comrade of the president.
Shoigu's reputation suffered after the diatribes against him by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and the arrest of deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of taking bribes.
But Shoigu has not been removed from the elite, with Putin nominating him as head of the national security council.
There are doubts over the future importance of the council, whose deputy chief is former president Dmitry Medvedev now best known for broadsides on social media rather than political influence.
"This appointment also indicates that the actual significance of the security council in the hierarchy may not be as great as observers typically assume," Stanovaya said.
Who is running the war?
With Belousov an economist with no military experience, the decision further distances the defense ministry from battlefield decision making and reinforces the power of the military general staff.
The future of Russia's chief of staff General Valery Gerasimov has been in doubt for months after he disappeared from public view but he remains in his post after the reshuffle.
Stuart Williams, with AFP
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