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- ‘Ramadan Truce’ in Gaza: How Favorable Is It for Lebanon?
A meeting was held on Sunday (March 3) in Cairo between officials from Hamas, Qatar and the United States to discuss the Gaza ceasefire agreement. If Israel agrees to the demands of the Palestinian movement and if Tel Aviv obtains – under its conditions – a comprehensive list of the names of surviving Israeli detainees, the ceasefire would inch closer to a conclusion. This development comes amidst concerted efforts to conclude negotiations prior to the beginning of the Holy Month of Ramadan, expected to start on March 10 or 11. Such an accord would put an end to a conflict spanning nearly five months, leaving the Gaza Strip ravaged and its population on the brink of famine, should efforts towards a ceasefire prove unsuccessful.
Western political stakeholders are intensifying their efforts to push for a Ramadan ceasefire, deeming it to be a crucial step towards solidifying a settlement aimed at preventing the escalation of hostilities from Gaza to Jerusalem during Eid prayers (at Al-Aqsa) and throughout the West Bank. Hence, international and regional forces are endorsing Washington's efforts for a Ramadan truce, hoping that it will pave the way for discussions on the political framework, potentially providing the Biden administration with a strategic edge in the upcoming presidential elections.
As per Arab diplomatic sources, the success of international and regional efforts in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza before the beginning of Ramadan as part of what is termed the "Ramadan Understanding," can most likely – according to sources within the Quintet – pave the way to a comprehensive solution to the Lebanese issue. Such a solution previews the election of a president and the formation of a government able to implement reforms according to the conditions outlined by the International Monetary Fund. These reforms aim to stabilize the economy through the restructuring of the banking sector and the revitalization of economic activity. In turn, it would consolidate the political overall situation and thwart Israel's attempts to instigate confrontation with Hezbollah. Israel’s recent targeting of Hezbollah sites, in Baalbek and other areas, is seen as an attempt by Tel Aviv to escalate tensions and inflame the southern front. Furthermore, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant issued threats following a significant rise in the percentage of Israelis advocating for war in southern Lebanon – now standing at 67% – with the aim of neutralizing Hezbollah as it did with Hamas in Gaza.
Western diplomatic sources quoted Hezbollah as stating, "The Shiite party does not want a war and refuses to engage in a full-fledged conflict on the southern front, which it describes as a support rather than a confrontational front. It also rejects Israel's attempts to lure it into a conflict and maintains that its response to Israeli actions remains within the rules of engagement."
Meanwhile, as per the American initiative and the French proposal, the implementation of Resolution 1701 is expected to unfold gradually alongside the Gaza ceasefire, to thwart off any attempts at keeping the southern front active. Hezbollah reaffirmed its commitment to the ceasefire and the Ramadan truce. However, should Israel choose to attack Lebanon, it will face unforeseen consequences and losses, and as a Hezbollah MP stated, “our reaction will shock them.”
The Presidential Dossier
The potential comprehensive solution for Lebanon is part of an international, regional and Lebanese deal, involving the election of a president in line with the criteria set by the Quintet, namely a president that doesn’t belong to any political party. In other words, this entails choosing a candidate who does not align with any specific group, faction or axis. Furthermore, the candidate shouldn’t antagonize Hezbollah, nor should he figure on the list of favorable candidates of the Shiite duo, Amal-Hezbollah, and the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance. Various names are being considered, including some that were not previously part of the presidential discussions but have now resurfaced as potential candidates.
In this regard, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) persists in vetoing the candidacy of Sleiman Frangieh (the Shiite duo’s nominee), as well as that of Army Commander-in-Chief General Joseph Aoun. Nevertheless, it remains willing to consider any other names under discussion, though it continues to support Jihad Azour, a candidate seen by the opposition as a potential middle ground candidate. Opposition sources contend that the deadlock in the presidential race stems from the Shiite duo's steadfastness in backing their candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, to bolster their negotiation position regarding the presidency. French sources reveal that the French initiative initially leaned towards supporting Frangieh (affiliated to the March 8 coalition) for the presidency and Nawaf Salam (affiliated to the March 14 alliance) for the premiership, prior to the latter’s appointment as head of the International Court of Justice. However, this equation fell apart following the appointment of former Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian as a presidential envoy to Lebanon.
Arab sources reveal that the Quintet is likely to convene in Riyadh after a ceasefire in Gaza. The meeting is expected to be at the level of foreign ministers, if regional conditions appear to be conducive to a comprehensive settlement and potential implementation. The Quintet meeting should be followed by a visit from Le Drian, and next by Qatari envoy Jassem bin Fahd al-Thani, to advance what was agreed upon.
Concurrently, senior White House advisor Amos Hochstein arrived in Lebanon to follow up on the issue of land demarcation with Speaker of the House Nabih Berri. This involves addressing the 13 disputed points between Lebanon and Israel, as well as point B1 in Naqoura, and engaging in efforts to implement Resolution 1701 to promote stability, peace and security on both sides of the border. These efforts aim to facilitate the return of southern residents to their homes and the residents of the northern Israeli settlements to theirs. The latter were forced to leave due to the escalation in southern Lebanon, and are allegedly being provided housing until next June by the Israeli government.
Plan for Stability in Southern Lebanon
Following the Ramadan truce, the focus will shift to stabilizing the South in three stages, in accordance with the American initiative and the French proposal. As an initial step, this entails a "cessation of military operations within 48 hours after the ceasefire, followed by the withdrawal of armed groups (Lebanese and Palestinian) 10 kilometers north of the border within 3 days.”
For the next step, Lebanon would start deploying troops in the South, after Israel announces the halt of aerial activities and stops violations of Resolution 1701 by air, sea and land. Within ten days, negotiations between Lebanon and Israel regarding the borders will resume gradually, backed by UNIFIL. These talks will be facilitated through meetings of the Lebanese-Israeli military committee under UN auspices in Naqoura. Furthermore, negotiations should discuss establishing areas free from any illegal weapons and armed members between the border and the Litani River. Arab and international efforts to support the Lebanese army with financing, equipment provision and training, in line with the French proposal, are underway, as well as support for social and economic development in southern Lebanon.
Per Western diplomatic sources, the aim of these efforts is to prevent the outbreak of the conflict that threatens to spiral out of control. During his visit to Lebanon, Stéphane Séjourné emphasized, "We have put forward proposals and are in contact with the Americans; it is crucial that all initiatives converge towards peace." Finally, a Western diplomat stated that Hezbollah’s withdrawal and the deployment of 15,000 troops from both the army and UNIFIL in the border region would safeguard northern Israeli villages from rocket attacks.
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