The prospects for a new Abraham Accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel seem open today. While the Wahhabi Kingdom quietly nurtured relations with Tel Aviv for several years, particularly in the intelligence realm, it is true that the officialization of their rapprochement is vital for both countries. For this purpose, specific conditions are imperative in light of the war raging between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip.
After the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, Saudi Arabia engaged in normalizing relations with Israel. A normalization that is part of the Abraham Accords, the signing of which (the first in September 2020) marked the dawn of a new geopolitical landscape in the region.
Yet, on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched the offensive against Tel Aviv, this process came to a standstill. One week into the conflict, Saudi Arabia announced its decision to “halt discussions until further notice” with Tel Aviv. About three months later, Riyadh resumed its stance, implicitly imposing its conditions. Although its predecessors concluded the Abraham Accords with the government of Benjamin Netanyahu under US auspices, the war between Hamas and Israel changed the situation. Observers argue that it would be inconceivable for Saudi Arabia to embark on this path with the current Israeli Prime Minister. Moreover, the signatory States of the Abraham Accords — which, let’s not forget, make no mention of the Palestinian issue— have been subject to pressure from their populations since October 7. As a matter of fact, they showcased their support to Palestinian civilians through public protests from the very beginning of the conflict.
In an interview with This is Beirut, Frederic Encel, a geopolitologist and Middle East specialist consultant, explains, “This war will unblock the situation. Once two conditions are met — cessation of hostilities and the change in the Israeli government — Saudi Arabia will resume the normalization process and effectively act towards this perspective in the upcoming months.”
Why? First, as outlined by Professor Encel, “Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is relentlessly working to achieve his objective of regional integration, establishing a hub that encompasses economic, technological, tourism and energy facets, among others.” Furthermore, “his long-term strategy consists of ensuring a relative pacification throughout the entire region.” This means “preventing Hamas from causing further harm and anticipating the formation of a more rational and less extremist Israeli government,” as highlighted by Professor Encel.
End of the War
From the Saudi perspective, a permanent ceasefire stands as a crucial prerequisite to relaunch the process of normalizing relations with Israel. The question at hand is to identify the parties involved in the negotiations, both on the Palestinian and Israeli fronts, in order to end the war.
According to General Dominique Trinquand, the former head of the French military mission to the UN, “given the 'non-legitimate' nature of both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority — especially considering the absence of Palestinian legislative elections since 2006 — one wonders if Hamas might find it in its interest to change its discourse.” Hamas consistently rejects any option apart from the full and complete liberation of Palestine, from the river to the sea.” This slogan has been reiterated since October 7, referencing the territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean.
According to General Trinquand, “political leaders of Hamas, especially those based in Qatar, might be able to reconsider this controversial slogan.” Professor Encel proposes that negotiations for the post-Gaza scenario could involve one of the following two figures: Mohammed Dahlan, the former head of security in Gaza, or Mustafa Barghouti, a former candidate for the Palestinian presidency.
Fall of Netanyahu
The second condition for the Wahhabi kingdom to consider normalizing relations with Israel would be the emergence of another Israeli coalition that supports the two-state perspective or, at the very least, does not reject it. However, imagining Netanyahu's departure seems difficult, at least for the time being, particularly given that the “Israeli Prime Minister is concerned about facing legal proceedings once removed from power,” as indicated by General Trinquand. The former head of the French military mission to the UN considers that the “significant disconnection between Netanyahu from one hand, and both the US and Europe on the other, coupled with external and internal pressures, might pave the way for a change within the Israeli cabinet.” How? According to Professor Encel, this could unfold in one of two ways: either through the unlikely scenario of establishing an inquiry commission, which would require approval from the Israeli government, or by at least four MPs of the current ruling coalition defecting during a vote of confidence.
As the tacit relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel prove unsustainable, it has become crucial to officialize the ties for both countries. By tacit relations we primarily refer to the exchange of intelligence, with Tel Aviv serving as an indispensable source for Saudi Arabia, in dealing with Iran. Noteworthy is also the Israeli role of “mediator” in recent years, between Saudi Arabia and the US.
While the establishment of a Palestinian State is not currently on the agenda, recognizing the principle of a Palestinian entity could contribute to advancing the normalization process.
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