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- The Iranian Surrogate Warfare and the New Cold War Scenarios
The true objectives of the war in Gaza are displayed in the widening regional battlefields which cover a large geopolitical spectrum extending between the Southern end of the Arabian peninsula (Yemen and Bab el-Mandeb) and the Near East. The expanding circles of this monumental strategic debacle overlap with the deepening domestic crisis in Iran, highlighted by the latest terrorist attacks targeting the Islamic regime, and challenging its iconic figures, debunked mythology and stability. This frenzy of terrorist attacks demonstrates the vulnerability of the regime, the flimsiness of its narrative, and its structural instability. In counterpart, this regime has an overriding objective, its survival on the crossroads between internal repression and regional destabilization.
One wonders what’s left of the Iranian-Saudi reconciliation at this point when conflicts are intentionally rekindled throughout the region, and the actors are doubling down on their sabotaging activities putting at stake regional and international security, and disrupting the lines of international trade: the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, the subservience of the Iraqi government to the diktat of Teheran, regarding the US presence in Iraq, the resumption of attacks against the American military bases on the strategic interfaces between Irak and Syria, the questioning of the Kurdish autonomy in cahoots with Turkey and the Alawite regime, the unraveling of Lebanese Statehood, the whisking strategic voids that bolster the Islamic State fortunes, and the harshness of internal repression.
Observers who failed to see the geostrategic scope of the 7th of October 2023 attack, never understood the real plot of the ensuing war and its incidence on regional and Western security. The Palestinian question was instrumentalized, as usual, to serve the competing power politics and clashing agendas, and Palestinian civilians took the brunt of irresponsible and criminal decision-making. This emerging dynamic should inevitably elicit counter-dynamics to set the demarcation lines, face up to the challenges and strengthen the alliances urged by the rising realities. Iran’s dogged determination to dispute the crosscutting strategic equations hinges on its alliance with the neo-totalitarian power bloc, the insidious militarization of nuclear civil energy, and the engagement of conflicts of varying scope and scale.
The magnitude and the scope of this mayhem are buttressed by Russian warmongering, Chinese cynical maneuvering and the ramshackle foundations of a waning regional order. The destruction of the Houthis military infrastructures, the urge to finish off with the Hamas military platform, the invigoration of Iranian oppositions, the checkmating of Iranian and Turkish influence in Iraq, the endorsement of Lebanese counter-politics and incremental containment of Hezbollah and the neutralization of the Alawite vagrancy, should ultimately pair with the destruction of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure and put an end to its shenanigans, or the finalization of interrupted negotiations.
The new Cold War needs to be won, and the conduct of war is far from being stymied by the highly politicized agenda of the International Criminal Court and its conceptual misnomers. Nonetheless, Israel has a legal battle at hand and should account for its war conduct, dissipate the conceptual, legal and ethical ambiguities, rein in the extremism of its ultranationalist and messianic fringes, and overcome the pitfalls of diplomatic incarceration. The only path to genuine peace and a working international conference to address the aporias and the pending issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is to win the war in Gaza, put an end to the ongoing tragedies and confront the unleashed dynamic of random violence, roaming terrorism and piracy. The US stalwart coalition is the road to be taken if the region were to overcome the traps of generalized chaos, barreling voids and nihilistic violence.
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