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The Iranian regime is mobilizing on all fronts while cynically downplaying the likelihood of a generalized conflict. There is nothing unusual since its unending maneuvering, within and outside borders, is part of its survival strategy. This regime is by definition predatory and driven towards a proactive destabilization policy as a corollary to its ideological dictums, failing legitimacy, and the vested interests of its clerical and para-military oligarchies. The old revolutionary doxa has withered a long time ago and has been replaced by a policy of harsh repression on the inside and an incremental regional expansionism, as the functional equivalents of a faltering political legitimacy. The politics of destabilization, the surrogate vassal states and political movements (Houthi Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Gaza and the West Bank) and the proxy wars are the wherewithals of the Iranian strategic doctrine. Safeguarding the Iranian regime’s security lies outside its borders.
The whole policy plot is based on a destabilization scheme to remedy the growing internal deficits. How can a diplomatic mediation be attempted, while doublespeak and predatory politics predominate and frame the fake political simulations? This ambiguity, far from being tactical and temporary, defines the very nature of a poker bluff based on calculations aimed at outmaneuvering the internal nemeses, deflecting the international pressure, and further uranium enrichment towards nuclear militarization.
The October 7, 2023 massacre in South Israel, the instrumentation of the operational platforms in South Lebanon and the Syrian borders with Israel, and the sabotaging of commercial navigation in the Red Sea, matched with terrorist marauding all along reflect the broader dynamics of disruption conducted jointly with Russia and China. Therefore, the chances of a widened conflict spectrum are growing by the day and the brinkmanship politics is broadening its radius. Time is of the essence before the nuclear thresholds are trampled and the hazards of nihilistic violence take over. Iran should be contained right on time before entering the zone of high turbulence and its imponderables.
The politics of de-escalation and the setting of shifting moratoriums should reflect on various operational theaters and translate into major policy course reversals, constructive engagements and unambiguous military disengagement on the multiple fronts: A/ the resumption of the nuclear regime inspection; B/ the disengagement from Gaza and South Lebanon relayed with internationally monitored security zones, systematic demilitarization, enforcement of resolution 1701 in South Lebanon and transfer of governance in Gaza to a hybrid government made up of international officers and Palestinian authority delegates mutually agreed by Israeli and Palestinian officials; C/ the restoration of security on the maritime strategic pathways; D/ the termination of the terror war and the crackdown on extremism on both sides; E/ the restart of negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, under international auspices, in order to finalize a new peace agreement based on moral reciprocity, mutual acknowledgment and working Statehood, which puts an end to the haphazards of shifting power relationships, ideological diktat and destructive cycles of violence.
The ongoing murkiness, destructive power politics and discretionary violence have come full circle and are inevitably leading to a full-fledged war. This state of manipulated uncertainty is short-lived and unlikely to survive the heightened cycles of violence and their deleterious effects. This game should end, the sooner the better, before a meteoric rise to violence takes over and irreversibility sets in. This state of deceptive ambiguity enacted in various operational theaters cannot go on with impunity. Iran should be confronted head-on and outmaneuvered, and the range of options should be incrementally considered with no further delay.
Charles Chartouni
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