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- Will Post-Gaza Peace Talks Speed Presidential Election?
The grace period granted by the Biden administration to Benjamin Netanyahu and his government to conclude their military mission in Gaza is beginning to narrow down. Nonetheless, Israel’s military announced that the war in Gaza will continue until its objectives are met, including the elimination of Hamas leadership and the dismantling of the group's military apparatus.
In the meantime, preparations for the post-Gaza war phase are underway as the mid-January deadline set by the Biden administration to end military operations draws closer.
Concurrently, Hamas announced its commitment to pursue its resistance until Israel decides to put a definite and immediate end to the war. The Palestinian faction believes that Israel failed to achieve its objectives, as the war is about to enter its fourth month. Regarding negotiations about the prisoner-hostage exchange, Hamas sources affirm that the militant group will not engage in any discussions until Israel officially announces a lasting ceasefire. As such, Hamas rejects the idea of humanitarian truces to secure the release of the hostages, fearing the resumption of Israeli military operations.
Due to concerns about broader regional entanglement, the international community is no longer "tolerating" the raging war. Consequently, there is growing international pressure to end the Gaza conflict by the end of this month. It entails pacifying the southern front in Lebanon and thoroughly implementing Resolution 1701. In return, Israel should commit to full compliance with the resolution, by ceasing all land, sea and air violations. The initiative should help facilitate Amos Hochstein's (the US envoy) mission to demarcate the land borders between Lebanon and Israel, by addressing the remaining six disputed points (originally 13). It also includes Israel's phased withdrawal from the Shebaa Farms, and handing over temporary control to an international force.
Diplomatic sources reveal Qatar's concerted regional and international effort, leveraging its role as a hub – much like Oman – for diplomatic negotiations. But beforehand, the Biden administration must have a clear position by curbing Netanyahu’s extremist government's escalating actions. The region cannot afford to teeter on the edge, as there are growing concerns that it could escalate into a full-blown war.
France, in particular, is deeply concerned about a potential escalation of the situation in South Lebanon into a full-scale war beyond the confines of Gaza. The relocation of Israel’s elite Golani Brigade from Gaza to northern Israel, namely to Lebanon’s southern front, heightened French concerns. According to diplomatic sources, the move is perceived as a negative sign from Israel, suggesting an intention to open the southern front as the Gaza war nears its conclusion. This strategic shift would allow Israel to address both the situations in Gaza and southern Lebanon simultaneously, as part of a comprehensive deal.
Under the deal, Israel proposes the creation of a temporary Arab force, to be placed under international auspices, to oversee Gaza’s security after the departure of Hamas's military leadership. In southern Lebanon, the full implementation of resolution 1701 should imply the creation of a buffer zone, a step still contested by Hezbollah. The Iran-backed party refuses to commit to the resolution's terms until a ceasefire is implemented in Gaza and Israel genuinely commits to abstain from violating the resolution and to abide by its regulations.
Amidst the quickly evolving situation, Lebanon has successfully navigated a critical security challenge by securing the extension of army commander General Joseph Aoun’s term in office, a move aimed at ensuring the stability of the military institution. The government is presently seeking to fill the vacancies in the six-member Military Council, including the key position of chief of staff. The concerted efforts of political parties, which led to keeping General Aoun in office, could potentially set the stage for renewed efforts to elect a President of the Republic. The ultimate goal is to have a president who would speak for Lebanon in future regional negotiations, aimed at reshaping the Middle East and forging a comprehensive peace settlement, based on a two-state solution which is still adamantly rejected by Israel despite growing international pressure.
According to an MP from the Lebanese Forces, the likelihood of reaching an agreement on the election of a President of the Republic is somewhat feasible if goodwill existed. Ending the presidential vacuum has become imperative given the eroding public institutions and the potential full collapse of the State. France dreads this potential scenario (per one of their officials) which, compounded with a war in South Lebanon, makes rebuilding the state an extremely challenging task.
Driven by concerns over Lebanon’s future, international and regional powers are prone to take action, as of early next year, to prevent the collapse of the Lebanese State. In parallel, Hezbollah is activating its political branch in the same direction.
This is evidenced by Hezbollah’s stance, which “effectively secured” the extension of Joseph Aoun’s term, despite the staunch opposition of its ally, Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil. The move aggravated the conflict between the two parties, which reached a breaking point. Today, Hezbollah believes that a fully functional state to deal with Lebanon’s multiple crises is paramount.
According to some sources, the "Paris Quintet," grouping France, the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, will take action on the Lebanese dossier as of next month. House Speaker Nabih Berri is expected to build on the political consensus reached over General Joseph Aoun's term extension, to facilitate the presidential election.
Western sources believe that Lebanon will have a president by May 2024.
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