The Lebanese political scene appears to be gearing up for a new phase that could start to take shape after the year-end festivities. This phase is based on a diplomatic dynamic that focuses both on the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, with a view to de-escalation in southern Lebanon, and on a breakthrough in the presidential deadlock. The latter is necessary for Lebanon to support the phase of pacification in the country's South. Last Thursday, a political development revived hopes for progress towards a potential agreement regarding the presidency.
Aside from postponing the retirement of the Commander-in-Chief of the Lebanese Army, General Joseph Aoun, whose term was supposed to expire on January 10, 2024, the Lebanese were struck by the unexpected meeting between General Aoun and Marada leader Sleiman Frangieh over dinner.
Last Thursday evening, on the eve of the parliamentary session during which MPs voted for a law delaying the retirement of generals heading security services by one year, thereby extending the mandate of the army chief, General Aoun and Frangieh met over dinner.
It was the Army Commander-in-Chief who invited the Marada leader—a Hezbollah-backed candidate for the presidency—and his family.
This "friendly" meeting, the first between the two presidential rivals, has been perceived by some political circles as a significant step towards opening a path to unblock the presidential deadlock.
Timing and Political Messages
Regarding the details of this meeting, This Is Beirut (TIB) learned that it was decided about a month ago, when relations between the two men were not at their best. Sleiman Frangieh had expressed opposition to General Joseph Aoun assuming the presidency. He subsequently adopted a more nuanced stance. “It was necessary to reduce tensions and prepare for the post-Gaza period internally,” explained a source familiar with the dinner's context to TIB. Hence the timing.
Choosing to hold this dinner on the eve of the parliamentary session in which Joseph Aoun was kept in his position is not insignificant. According to a source close to the matter, the "architects" of this meeting wanted to convey three main messages.
First, to show that there is no personal discord between Frangieh and Aoun, even if they could technically be considered political "rivals."
Second, both candidates are continuing, at least for the moment, their race for the presidency while maintaining good relations. Frangieh as the candidate of Hezbollah, and General Aoun as a key figure who has the support of many internal and international parties.
Third, both the Marada leader and the army chief aimed to send a clear message to the head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Gebran Bassil, who opposes the candidacies of both.
For Frangieh, this meeting was an opportunity to demonstrate openness to others, particularly to his main "rival" in the presidential election, and to highlight Bassil's "political isolation," who seeks at all costs to play the role of kingmaker, according to the same sources.
For Aoun, the invitation was a way to convey the message that he is capable of maintaining good relations with the Hezbollah-backed presidential candidate.
Political Assurances
Considering the developments in the region and the agreement that led to the postponement of General Aoun's retirement, unlocking the presidential deadlock no longer seems impossible. At least, that's what a source close to the matter confirms. "Hezbollah will certainly not give up its support for Sleiman Frangieh's candidacy," the source said, "unless the pro-Iranian party is granted guarantees or concessions, notably in the context of talks about the implementation of Resolution 1701. It could thus focus on 'creating a national guard' tasked with ensuring security in southern Lebanon," the source noted, adding, "It may also hope to become the 'guarantor' of the delineation of land borders on the agenda in the near future."
Legal Action
In the meantime, Gebran Bassil wants to continue his battle against his two political adversaries. After staunchly opposing the postponement of Joseph Aoun's retirement, the head of the FPM is considering the possibility of appealing to the Constitutional Council. However, according to some jurists, this is impossible because as Parliament moved back the retirement age for all officers at the rank of general and division general, the law passed in this regard is seen as "general, abstract, impersonal and constitutionally consolidated."
Bassil may also face a defamation lawsuit that could be brought against him by the army chief. It's worth mentioning that the head of the FPM had attempted in early December to denigrate the Army Commander-in-Chief, accusing him of law violations and financial irregularities without providing any evidence.
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