At the heart of a severe economic crisis and amid a regional context marked by the war in Gaza, Egypt is gearing up for the presidential election. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who is running for a third term, is expected to remain in power without surprise.
The election, scheduled from Sunday to Tuesday, pits the incumbent president against three other relatively unknown candidates. The candidates in question are Farid Zahran from the Egyptian Democratic and Social Party, Abdel-Sanad Yamama, a leader of the Wafd party, and Hazem Omar from the Republican People's Party. Initially slated for March 2024, the presidential election was moved up to December 2023 by the Electoral Commission.
The opposition will have no representation in the election, as the leader of the liberal opposition, Hisham Kassem, was sentenced to six months in prison in October. Similarly, former MP Ahmed al-Tantawi failed to gather a sufficient number of signatures for the election. He is also due to appear in court next month on charges of electoral document forgery.
The results are expected to be announced on December 18, unless a runoff is required. However, such an outcome seems highly improbable given the results of the last two elections, where Abdel Fattah El-Sisi secured 96% of the votes.
The economy is the central issue of the election, as the economic crisis suffocates the nearly 106 million inhabitants. Inflation stands at 40%, a 50% devaluation has sent prices soaring, and the private sector continues to contract. Public subsidies are gradually disappearing under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF is still awaiting the opportunity to conduct its quarterly evaluations following a new loan to Egypt. According to Bloomberg, Egypt is the world's second-most exposed country to the risk of defaulting. However, this issue doesn't seem to worry the incumbent president, who hasn't bothered to organize rallies or participate in televised debates. His domestic policy program has also been sidelined. Instead, the president is banking on the ongoing crisis in Gaza.
Indeed, with no real opposition, the presidential election doesn’t captivate many in Egypt amid the Israeli offensive in Gaza. El-Sisi himself prioritizes events related to Palestine, such as the November 23rd gathering at Cairo Stadium, termed 'Long Live Egypt: A Popular Response in Solidarity with Palestine.' Faced with what they consider a 'non-event,' Egyptians prefer to focus on Gaza. This situation is advantageous for the incumbent president, who leans on his role as a mediator in the ongoing war.
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